Popular Post DrumCorpsRadio Posted June 29, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted June 29, 2023 Welcome to DCI 2023! Another season is upon us! For those who may not remember or who joined since the close of the 2022 season, I keep careful day-to-day statistics of show results and compare how things are going today to how they went on the same relative day of competition last year. From time to time, the analysis expands back to previous years for which I've been logging data. Does it mean much? Probably not. Does it give us something to ponder as the season moves along? Absolutely! Schedule Alignment The first hiccup this year is that the season is 5 days shorter than 2022 and 6 days shorter than 2015-2019. Specifically, there are 45 days from show 1 to finals night this season compared to 50 last year and 51 for the previous five full competitive seasons. My analysis method always aligned these calendars so that we could make relative judgments based on where we were in the competitive cycle. Because of the importance of lining up the big shows later in the season, I have decided to align 2023 Day 1 (June 28, 2023) with 2022 Day 4 (June 28, 2022), and, in the event I do multi-year analysis along the way, with Day 7 of the 2015-2019 seasons. The practical impact is that for a little while we will be comparing first read scores from this season with performances that have had a few opportunities to work out some kinks in previous seasons. June 28 Run-Down Despite all of that preamble, the season debuts for Phantom Regiment and Blue Stars line up with where they were in the overall schedule last year. Phantom Regiment opens this year 5.550 points ahead of its opening score last year while Blue Stars is 4.750 ahead. Troopers opened up quite a bit earlier than 2022 (July 8). Even with that, Troopers opening score this year is a point ahead of its start last year. Colts opened up a few days earlier this year with a first score about 3 points ahead of last season. It will take a few shows to determine whether opening scores are inflated this year or if we happened to see four corps all trending up to open up the season. Given the leaps ahead taken by Troopers, Colts, and Phantom Regiment last year, the latter option would make for some excitement later this summer. June 30 Preview There are no shows on June 29. Last night's four corps will be joined by Carolina Crown and The Cavaliers on June 30th in Muncie. 6 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2muchcoffeeman Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 (edited) Because this is valuable and cool . . . Because it is evident that you handle data with care . . . Because it is plain that you are committed to accuracy . . . . . . I submit this to you. The proper usage is "Daily Rundown." One word. Carry on, and thank you for the contribution to the community. Edited June 30, 2023 by 2muchcoffeeman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ContraFart Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 We should pin this 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumCorpsRadio Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 19 hours ago, 2muchcoffeeman said: Because this is valuable and cool . . . Because it is evident that you handle data with care . . . Because it is plain that you are committed to accuracy . . . . . . I submit this to you. The proper usage is "Daily Rundown." One word. Carry on, and thank you for the contribution to the community. You are correct and I appreciate it. Unfortunately, I do not think I can edit a subject so we are all going to spend the next 6 weeks knowing that it should be changed for next year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumCorpsRadio Posted July 1, 2023 Author Share Posted July 1, 2023 June 30 Rundown There was just one show, but it added The Cavaliers and Carolina Crown to the mix from opening night. Crown debuted with an even 75.000, 1.050 points higher than its 2022 debut on the same night. The Cavaliers debut of 70.100 is just 0.100 points lower than its score on the same night last year. That being said, that 70.100 was worth a lot more in 2022 than it is in 2023 with two corps (Blue Stars and Phantom Regiment) ourscoring The Cavaliers this year. Phantom Regiment saw the largest night-over-night point gain at 1.250 points. Troopers fell back by a quarter of a point, allowing Colts to close the gap to within one point. July 1 Preview This is a big night! We have our first multi-event day. This includes the debut of 16 corps, including every 2022 World Class finalist sans Bluecoats (and Santa Clara Vanguard, of course). 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumCorpsRadio Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 July 1 Rundown And the first of seven Saturday competition days has come and gone. Because of the importance of Saturdays as regional and championship event days, I like to use the Sunday rundown as an opportunity to take stock of the competitive landscape in a bit more detail. I'll call that section "Saturday Showdown." This is meant to look across the shows more than the daily rundown does. When time permits, I'll dig into historical trends in that section as well. Lynn Boston Crusaders came out punching with a 77.150 opening salvo. This is 4.250 points higher than the equivalent performance last year. The Cadets also debuted with a strong score of 73.750, 4.600 points higher than the same time last year which was also a debut performance. Year-over-year debut scores were similarly up for the Open Class competitors in Lynn with Spartans at 61.400 (compared to 58.300 last year) and 7th Regiment earning a 52.650 (compared to 46.750 last year). Madison The gradual layering of additional corps continued in the midwest with the debut of the Madison Scouts. The corps opened with a 64.800, almost exactly in line with last year's debut score of 64.500 on the same night. The placements between and among Blue Stars, Troopers, and Colts remained consistent with only slight score increases. Colt Cadets also joined the fray with an opening score of 47.900, nearly identical to lats year's debut of 47.750 on the same night. All corps in Madison with comparable scores last year are within a point of those scores year-over-year. Vista Blue Devils make the headlines and that is true today as the corps debuted with a 77.300, nearly two points higher than its equivalent score last year of 75.450. Mandarins also came up strong with an opening score of 71.200, 3.550 points higher than last year's score at this time although it should be noted that that was not a purely year-over-year comparison. The Academy is 2.050 points above its 2022 on this date. The biggest World Class debut might be Pacific Crest as its 64.050 point opening is 4.150 points higher than its score on the same night last year. In Open Class, Blue Devils B begin with a strong 62.100. The corps had not yet performed this time last year. Gold is 5.300 points ahead of last year with its 61.650 point score. Further down, we see even greater year-over-year jumps for Golden Empire (56.750 vs. 47.050) and Impulse (52.650 vs. 38.500). Vessel successfully returned to the competition field and Blue Devils C made its season debut as well. Lots of action in California! Saturday Showdown Caveat - It's way too early to analyze scores. The reason I first started this method of data comparison was to create a data-based year-over-year comparison. So, here we go anyway! A competitive landscape missing Santa Clara Vanguard and Vanguard Cadets means that there are places to be filled in finals in both classes. The corps most looking to capitalize in World Class are Crossmen and Blue Knights, two finalist regulars that got knocked out by the surging Colts and Troopers last year. Then you have Madison Scouts looking to get back to finals for the first time since 2017, or perhaps The Academy, looking to recapture the magic of the 2016 season. The only 2022 finalist yet to compete is Bluecoats who we will see on July 5th. With Santa Clara Vanguard out, Crossmen having been in 13th last year would be the next closest finalist performer yet to compete. We will see them on July 7th along with Blue Knights. Genesis and Spirit of Atlanta also debut this week so the next Saturday Showdown will feature all World Class corps except Seattle Cascades and Jersey Surf. So where are we after our first Saturday? The more things change, the more they stay the same. Blue Devils are in the top spot with last year's co-silver medalist Boston Crusaders right behind. Carolina Crown is about two points behind the leaders but did not compete on Saturday night, suggesting the corps would be in the same medalist conversation at this much too early stage of competition. Assuming Bluecoats are in this same conversation seems safe. But that's where things begin to get more interesting. On the Rise The Cadets currently sit in 4th place, four spots higher than this time last year and two spots higher than the corps' 2022 finish. A fourth or fifth place finish would be the highest for the corps since 2015. Next up is Phantom Regiment in 5th, four spots higher than this time last year, and three spots higher than finals. A fifth or sixth place finish would be the highest for the corps since 2013. Mandarins open up in 6th place, four spots higher than this time last year and last year's finals placement. A sixth or seventh place finish would be the best ever for the Mandarins. Troopers currently sit in 9th place. The corps had not yet debuted this time last year, but when it did on July 8th, the corps was in 17th place before ultimately finishing in 12th. A ninth or tenth place finish would be the best finish for Troopers since 1985. Similarly, Colts currently rank 10th, two spots higher than this time last year and one spot higher than last year's finals. Colts have only been at 10th or better three times - 1995, 1996, and 2007. Holding Steady Blue Stars currently sit in 7th place, the same spot as this time last year and the same spot as the 2022 finals. A seventh or eighth place finish would match the corps' finals placement for each of the past three seasons. The Cavaliers begin the 2023 season in 8th place, two spots lower than this time last year but one spot ahead of last year's finals' placement. An eighth or ninth place finish would be on the lower end of the corps' modern history. More Data Needed Until Blue Knights and Crossmen enter competition, there are many open questions about the lower end of the Top 12 and since that day is coming soon, I'll hold off until next week to go into those two corps along with The Academy, Madison Scouts, and Pacific Crest. Not to mention, we will see how the return to the field for Spirit of Atlanta and the season debut of Genesis shake things up. Open Class With last year's gold medalists off the field, Blue Devils B, Gold, and Spartans must be the front runners for the finalist spots in Open Class. Right now, those three corps are one, two, and three, in that order with a somewhat surprising Golden Empire in fourth. Golden Empire is ranked 17th overall at the moment, up from 23rd this time last year and 33rd from the 2022 finals. While this is going to fall numerous spots as the rest of the World Class field enters competition, there's something fun to watch here as well. July 2 Preview Lisle Carolina Crown, Phantom Regiment, and The Cavaliers return to competition after being off on Saturday night, giving us our first same night scores of these corps against others currently sitting in the top 8. San Bernardino and Quincy Both shows are exact rematches of last night's contests so the main thing to watch is the impact of getting that first competitive run out of the way. 5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KVG_DC Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Great recap! I love the analysis. One note on Open Class. BDB will not be making the trip to Indy. So the battle there is likely to be Gold v Spartans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom56 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 At least six corps have yet to compete: Bluecoats, Blue Knights, Crossmen, Spirit, Music City, Seattle Cascades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAYGO Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Great thread and analysis. Thank you DrumCorpsRadio! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Guns Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Mods, is it possible to pin this? This thread is awesome! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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