jmc5682 Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 You cannot take prediction threads seriously since the corps have yet to even perform a show. Those threads are mostly for people to place their favorites where they hope they will place. It is just hype. Now, when predictions threads start after the first regional with all the World Class corps in competition they can become pretty accurate, because let's face it, we will most likely know who the top 4 at Finals will be after that first all inclusive event. At least that is how it has been in the recent past. There have been years when we have had a few surprises, and it would be great if this was one of those years, but how can anyone know before a note has been played on the field. Still, it is fun to predict your favorite corps to win the gold medal before the season starts, because it is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 Now, when predictions threads start after the first regional with all the World Class corps in competition they can become pretty accurate, because let's face it, we will most likely know who the top 4 at Finals will be after that first all inclusive event. Another way of mentioning slotting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perc2100 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 You cannot take prediction threads seriously since the corps have yet to even perform a show. Those threads are mostly for people to place their favorites where they hope they will place. It is just hype. Now, when predictions threads start after the first regional with all the World Class corps in competition they can become pretty accurate, because let's face it, we will most likely know who the top 4 at Finals will be after that first all inclusive event. At least that is how it has been in the recent past. There have been years when we have had a few surprises, and it would be great if this was one of those years, but how can anyone know before a note has been played on the field. Still, it is fun to predict your favorite corps to win the gold medal before the season starts, because it is possible. That could be. I think if there is good discourse w/some data analysis, discussion can be FAR more than "just hype." Looking at ranking history, fairly recent trends, etc. can be a pretty good indicator of where a corps COULD end up. You're right, of course, that talk is just that until corps start competing; however good discussion can be had with more than hype. One could also make the argument that folks who downplay preseason discussion as "just talk" are usually doing so because their favorite is not being overly hyped up... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perc2100 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Another way of mentioning slotting Lol "Slotting" = the excuse for not being able to analyse the sheets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Dude Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Are you saying the judges don't understand the sheets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappybara Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Another way of mentioning slotting. Slotting only exists in the early part of the season. Think of it akin to pre-season rankings in College Basketball. Last season, Florida was ranked in the pre-season top 10 simply because they're Florida and had some good recruits. As the season went on and people realized their team wasn't any good, they dropped out of the rankings. Similarly, think back to 2009 in DCI. Phantom Regiment had come off of a winning season, and they were placed extremely highly in the first few weeks of competition. Think of this as their "pre-season ranking." By finals, as you probably know, Phantom Regiment ended up in 9th place. If you think that the results we get every year at Finals is because of pre-made biases from judges, you're kidding yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perc2100 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Are you saying the judges don't understand the sheets? Not at all. I'm saying fans who consistently make the go-to argument of "slotting" don't understand individual sheets with how they pertain to a corps' individual performance. The "slotting" argument is a fallacy, especially when we have plenty of examples of corps dropping placements overnight (i.e. Bluecoats beating Cadets at Finals in 2014). Slotting, IMO, is similar to the same weak, illogical "9/11 Truther" type arguments from folks who just don't understand all of the evidence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perc2100 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Slotting only exists in the early part of the season. Think of it akin to pre-season rankings in College Basketball. Last season, Florida was ranked in the pre-season top 10 simply because they're Florida and had some good recruits. As the season went on and people realized their team wasn't any good, they dropped out of the rankings. Similarly, think back to 2009 in DCI. Phantom Regiment had come off of a winning season, and they were placed extremely highly in the first few weeks of competition. Think of this as their "pre-season ranking." By finals, as you probably know, Phantom Regiment ended up in 9th place. If you think that the results we get every year at Finals is because of pre-made biases from judges, you're kidding yourself. Even then, there are other weird dynamics at play early season: * how complete a show is when it first comes out. If Phantom had a lot of their show ready to go that could explain why they were ahead of some (like Blue Stars) or not-too-far-behind others (like Cavaliers). * judge panels. Early season panels are often incomplete. If judged captions at early shows favor a corps, while captions that hurt a corps are not present (or vice versa), a corps' number could look artificially better or worse than they appear. I'm not saying your wrong, or even that judges don't give the benefit of the doubt to some corps early on. I'm just saying there are a LOT of variables that go into numbers, and it's difficult to say for sure why corps scored what they did early season 5+ years ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GUARDLING Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 (edited) Even then, there are other weird dynamics at play early season: * how complete a show is when it first comes out. If Phantom had a lot of their show ready to go that could explain why they were ahead of some (like Blue Stars) or not-too-far-behind others (like Cavaliers). * judge panels. Early season panels are often incomplete. If judged captions at early shows favor a corps, while captions that hurt a corps are not present (or vice versa), a corps' number could look artificially better or worse than they appear. I'm not saying your wrong, or even that judges don't give the benefit of the doubt to some corps early on. I'm just saying there are a LOT of variables that go into numbers, and it's difficult to say for sure why corps scored what they did early season 5+ years ago Judges don't slot , corps do , often slot themselves in many ways.IMO Corps will at some point be put into neighborhoods , not that a corps cant jump neighborhoods during the season Edited May 11, 2015 by GUARDLING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craiga Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Slotting only exists in the early part of the season. Think of it akin to pre-season rankings in College Basketball. Last season, Florida was ranked in the pre-season top 10 simply because they're Florida and had some good recruits. As the season went on and people realized their team wasn't any good, they dropped out of the rankings. Similarly, think back to 2009 in DCI. Phantom Regiment had come off of a winning season, and they were placed extremely highly in the first few weeks of competition. Think of this as their "pre-season ranking." By finals, as you probably know, Phantom Regiment ended up in 9th place. If you think that the results we get every year at Finals is because of pre-made biases from judges, you're kidding yourself. Cappy, I've got your back on this one. I was actually on tour with BAC in 09, and I distinctly remember the first show being in Ohio, with Phantom vastly ahead of the rest of the pack, which included Boston, Bluecoats and (Crown, I think). I thought they had been awesome in '08, and deserved the win. When I saw them that night in Ohio, however, (Akron or Dublin....not sure which), I thought they were a shadow of themselves. I recall folks in the stands being shocked by their score, which I believe WAS based on their incredible 08 finish. As that week progressed, however, their score dropped each night compared with everyone else, and by about three weeks in, reality had set in. I DO believe there was a baked-in expectation for them, and it took the judges several viewings to sort out the numbers management, imo. Not saying anyone did anything intentionally..just human nature at work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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