wvu80 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Joe, I actually got the only F in my life as a Liberty High School senior member of the Guard for missing a June performance to march a show with the Reading Buccaneers! Went on to become a classroom teacher and have now spent 50 years in drum corps. Screw him! "...fifty years!!?" Uh, don't you think it's about time to move on? (that's a hilarious story ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mboogey73 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 couple of things here 1. you have to halve the percussion score on the overall score impact - so the .15 change you are discussing only shifts the total score by 0.075 2. those were score gaps (in percussion) from 3 weeks ago - assuming they will translate to tonight is a stretch 3. the GE judges have more of an impact - yes, all 4 of them. Ken Turner vs. Nola is a possible plus for BD 4. cadets will be in black tonight - so that's not a factor I'd give BD a 30% chance of overtaking Crown, I'd give Cadets a 10% chance, and I'd give Bluecoats a 5% chance. That leaves crown with a 55% chance of winning, which frankly I'd round up to 60% with the crowd in their back pocket. That has an effect on the judges as well, as it should. With regards to percussion, those scores are still relevant because Crown has consistently been.5 to .9 below the leaders at every show. Which way it goes tonight will go along way in determining the gold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandonovan Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 there's a GE judge that has favored BD - the others are more Crown/Cadets so I've been calling it "balanced" as far as the top groups are concerned - but it's not (historically speaking) as favorable a panel for BD as semis the only change I predict is Cadets will medal. A couple judges last night really tanked Cadets. I'd give that a 60-70% chance of happening I wouldn't be shocked if BD wins - Crown's percussion spread is an issue. So if BD can take guard and spread drums - BD can overtake them heck it's not "outside the #'s" that Coats jump all the way up and win - things are so scrambled it is possible. In 5th place... Santa Clara Vanguard!.... *intensely long pause* And in first place... I honestly think if in DCI that happened, the internet would implode. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Dixon Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 With regards to percussion, those scores are still relevant because Crown has consistently been.5 to .9 below the leaders at every show. Which way it goes tonight will go along way in determining the gold. relevant yes, but the performance caption scores are halved - so you have to spread them 2x to make up for a gap in GE - which is not halved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvu80 Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Probably, although I looked into just two previous contests for only one of tonight's eleven judges. Someone who wishes to blow their afternoon investigating all of this year's results might find that one or the other of these judges does in fact show a trend of regular favoring corps A over corps B, in contrast to what other judges in the same category have done. So for (an entirely hypothetical) example, maybe all guard judges combined have Crown beating BD 75% of the time this year, but tonight's judge preferred BD to Crown on each occasion. That might show a bias toward BD. Or it might be a coincidence, because BD's guard in fact outperformed Crown's on those two or three occasions. Which brings up a major challenge with any such analysis: the sample size will be pretty small. BD and Crown competed head to head sixteen times so far this year. In how many of these contests did they see the same judge in the same category? (See also George Dixon's post #48.) My friend, if you keep this kind of analysis up, you will drive yourself NUTS before finals actually gets here!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Dixon Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 My friend, if you keep this kind of analysis up, you will drive yourself NUTS before finals actually gets here!!! as if we aren't all already NUTS. "Drum Corps Nuts" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeRapp Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Perhaps it's not that simple. Take a look at the rate of score improvement. BD improved .6 faster than Crowne from prelims to semi's. They were about .7 behind Crown in prelims but cut it to about .1 in semi's. It could be argued that this gap closing was due to the different panel. At this rate of improvement, BD will be .5 AHEAD of Crown in finals. Sometimes looking at raw placement doesn't tell the whole story. This finals panel looks like it favors BD. See my analysis on page 8 here. Did you factor out the half point penalty? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevingamin Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Not surprisingly, there are some that think tonights panel is pro-Crown/Cadets, and others think it favors BD.And still others think the panel is pro drum corps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Windish Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 "...fifty years!!?" Uh, don't you think it's about time to move on? (that's a hilarious story ) I can never move on from drum corps. But, I have started to like events better on TV ! Yes, that's a true story, one I've told often. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liahona Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Going to repost this here from the prediction topic. I'm sticking by my previous prediction (from earlier this week) of: 1- The corps who wins semis will not win finals 2- no corps will break 98 At least one if these will probably be correct (if not both?) Both real easy predictions if only made earlier this week...based simply upon scoring trends and a tight competition...haha I disagree with number 1 though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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