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2017 PREDICTIONS!


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I have another one.  

If Oregon Crusaders don't place in the top 15 of World Class they will be incredibly close.  The color guard is stronger this year, the visual design is better, and I think they might be pushing not only top 15 but top 12 in music captions.  They sound that good.  This is all going to come down to how clean they get visually.  

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2 hours ago, DrumManTx said:

I was talking about corps that placed below 15th last year, and they were 15th (in WC).  

Oh ok!  Sorry, I actually did want your opinions on them tho...

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On 7/8/2017 at 9:39 PM, henry7184 said:

Crown might very well be up there with the other three, but you can't compare scores from different shows. Crown cold have very well be 3rd if they were in MN tonight. They haven't beaten Bluecoats yet this year.

No offence to you, but I know you can't accurately compare scores from different shows.

It doesn't mean that we don't do it on here constantly; and besides that, Crown is consistently scoring in the highest tier from show to show relative to BD, Bluecoats, SCV, and Cavaliers.  

Crown is clearly above the Cavaliers, by a similar amount to where Bluecoats were above Cavaliers.  Then there's SCV who has only beaten Bluecoats once, but looks like they've been scoring around where the Cavaliers have been scoring.  So, yea, you can relatively compare scores and spreads between scores to get a general idea of where corps might be at the moment.

I'm pretty bored with the obvious comment that you can't directly compare scores from different shows. Literally EVERYONE on here should know that by now, but WHO CARES?

Let's just take away the "fun" of following the competitive aspect of the summer and shut up about who is better or worse so that people can just watch the shows and comment about how they love everything...  I bet even more people will stop coming around.

LOL.

 

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31 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

I'm pretty bored with the obvious comment that you can't directly compare scores from different shows. Literally EVERYONE on here should know that by now, but WHO CARES?

 

No offense taken, I am pretty bored, myself, with telling people that you cannot compare scores from different shows. Yes, everyone on here should know it, but they clearly don't. And I don't understand why. I don't disagree that Crown is right up there with Bluecoats. They have been for the most part all season (ok, well a small bit behind). I was just replying to those who said Crown was out front of SCV and Bluecoats because they got an 81.9 vs an 80.2 and 80.1. Fact - that 81.9 score may have been a 79 had Crown been at Minnesota, it also could have been an 82.5. We don't know because they weren't there. Until Crown beats BD, Bluecoats and SCV, I don't think anyone can claim they are out front. They may win at San Antonio - entirely possible, but an 81.9 vs an 80.2 at different shows doesn't mean diddly. 

 

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50 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

Then there's SCV who has only beaten Bluecoats once, but looks like they've been scoring around where the Cavaliers have been scoring.  So, yea, you can relatively compare scores and spreads between scores to get a general idea of where corps might be at the moment.

 

You can't relatively compare scores. And this example proves the point. The Cavaliers may be scoring near Vanguard, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are as good as Vanguard. Bloo had been beating the Cavaliers by about 2 points. Santa Clara last beat the Bluecoats by 0.01. Cavaliers and SCV have not met, but they have a common opponent. The only acceptable assumption would be that SCV is about 2 points ahead of the Cavaliers based on the spread between each of them and their common opponent (the Bluecoats). But since it's been 11 days since Bluecoats and Cavaliers have met, I wouldn't even put too much weight in that assumption.

BD got a 99.65 in 2014. Not because they were nearly perfect, but because the judges ran out of room. It's all about numbers management and spreads. 

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44 minutes ago, henry7184 said:

You can't relatively compare scores. And this example proves the point. The Cavaliers may be scoring near Vanguard, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are as good as Vanguard. Bloo had been beating the Cavaliers by about 2 points. Santa Clara last beat the Bluecoats by 0.01. Cavaliers and SCV have not met, but they have a common opponent. The only acceptable assumption would be that SCV is about 2 points ahead of the Cavaliers based on the spread between each of them and their common opponent (the Bluecoats). But since it's been 11 days since Bluecoats and Cavaliers have met, I wouldn't even put too much weight in that assumption.

BD got a 99.65 in 2014. Not because they were nearly perfect, but because the judges ran out of room. It's all about numbers management and spreads. 

I understand what you're saying, but all I'm saying is that I know none of this subjective judging from one show to another show would stand up "scientifically", and I see a bunch of people repeat that constantly here; hell I say it sometimes too.  Despite that, we all like to compare the scores for fun. I mean, there are several sites that you can go to to compare the scores.  It's just for fun.  It is fun to guess where each corps would place compared to one another.

In my mind, a 2 point spread pretty much the max spread that says two corps are relatively even and on any given night kind the score can favor on over the other.  Bluecoats and Cavaliers haven't met in a little while; SCV and the chicken coop ( Cavies) haven't met once yet, but I'm pretty sure, they're all within that range along with Crown.  Cavies are just on the bottom of that particular set of matchups.

Cavaliers would be at the top of the BAC, Cadets, Cavalier matchup;

As far as SCV, I'd guess that they're still around 4th. 

My thought is that Bluecoats had a bad run, which allowed SCV to nip them.  It's possible that other corps could have gotten them too that night.

I'm not taking anything away from my favorite show of the season, but one show a trend does not make...

At the end of the season, I expect to see SCV in the thick of things for sure, but I also think you CAN compare the integrity of the box numbers from show to show, as that is the set criteria that is used to come up with the scores in each caption the first place.

....so a 79 and an 84 in a subcaption SHOULD mean something compared to the overall score.

Anyway, it's all in good fun. I'm not sure how to explain it better at the moment as I'm trying to multitask, and probably messing all three things up...

haha

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, henry7184 said:

No offense taken, I am pretty bored, myself, with telling people that you cannot compare scores from different shows. Yes, everyone on here should know it, but they clearly don't. And I don't understand why.

It's called self-deception. The are a few medial terms for it too borderline personality disorder, narcissistic personality disorder, and histrionic personality disorder.

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