If Current DCI Model Gets Cut Back...

[N.E. Brigand]

2 hours ago, cixelsyd said:

If these measures are still standard operating procedure in the summer of 2021, it would be unwise to send a drum corps on "tour".  The financial consequences of committing to a tour with all its expenses, then missing two weeks or more of its revenue opportunities, would be fatal.  Coping with that would require that the 2021 season be materially different in nature, such that either expenses are greatly reduced, or commitments are shorter-term and/or insured against last-minute cancellation. 

For any given corps, if that means doing more shows close to home, or breaking "the tour" into two or three shorter "tours", then so be it. 

For DCI as a whole, if that means integrating open-class and world-class to fill shows more locally, instead of staging two segregated tours, then so be it.

If that is the shape the 2021 season takes, I am not so sure I would call it a "cutback".  I prefer the term "comeback".

These are good points.

[N.E. Brigand]

2 hours ago, cixelsyd said:

I would not worry about the COVID-19 death rate being under-reported.  One of the panel of experts assured us all that anyone who dies "with COVID-19" will be counted, not just those who die "from COVID-19".  In other words, if I test positive, and while heading home to self-isolate, I get hit by a bus, I would count as a COVID-19 death.

Apart from your joke about the bus (nobody's counting that as a COVID death), that's how it works every year with the flu, which is more lethal for the elderly and those with underlying conditions. 

And that's how it works all the time with every other attributed cause of death.

"The coyote suffered from diabetes and hypertension; it's ridiculous to list 'crushed by anvil' as cause of death."

VK did a cartoon show one year, didn't they?

[HockeyDad]

1 hour ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Some of us want to hear both good and bad news to get the whole picture. Concern I have is there will still be pockets of the virus out there and people who were not infected before could get it as we begin to unshelter and start another round of what we are going thru now.

Which actually relates to the thread as the long term affects of possible multiple rounds will hit people wanting to go out or on tour. 1918 flu had at least 1 mutation and lasted almost 3 years before it finally went away. And no one is sure why it went away. Going to be a lot of fear determining fate of DC

I don’t know if that’s true. How many times did it go ripping through Philadelphia?  Once. New York?  Once. And so on. There may have been multiple “waves” before it touched every corner of the earth, but as far as I know, not more than once in the same city. I was reading old accounts from my little home town (isn’t the internet wonderful?). It hit after a war bond drive (just like Philly), first case reported Oct 7.  The city shut down (just like today).   Gone by Christmas and never returned. Now - perhaps this is because a large portion of the population was infected and herd immunity developed. Or maybe it mutated into something less harmful. No one knows. 

[IllianaLancerContra]

56 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

I better explain my laughing face response... I was think of a field show with at least 20 feet between members

One brass player on each part & crank it through the amps...

[DFA1970]

I just read a poll conducted about people willing to go to baseball games if it's possible and 72 percent said they would not go to one until there is a vaccine for Covid-19. There is normal before this happened and a new normal which changes society from social community. Even if this virus levels out and we slowly go out in the summer since there is no vaccine and fall and winter comes around and with that a flu and cold season who knows who has what. Science is basically at K level of learning about how this virus spreads...why it effects some with no symptoms and others it drastically affects (including younger people). Basically we can't get tested unless we're already very sick.

[IllianaLancerContra]

54 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said:

Thanks Tim. Even if a full autopsy is performed (had some experience with the report over the last few years)  what you say is true for cause of death. Expect mostly pneumonia for coronavirus victims. 

Pneumonia is also what ended up killing many if not most victims in 1918 pandemic - Influenza led to bacterial pneumonia, & because antibiotics hadn't been invented yet it was this that actually killed them.  

[IllianaLancerContra]

16 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Apart from your joke about the bus (nobody's counting that as a COVID death), that's how it works every year with the flu, which is more lethal for the elderly and those with underlying conditions. 

And that's how it works all the time with every other attributed cause of death.

"The coyote suffered from diabetes and hypertension; it's ridiculous to list 'crushed by anvil' as cause of death."

VK did a cartoon show one year, didn't they?

Completely off-topic, but it mist have been an absolute hoot to play in the orchestra making a Warners Bros. cartoon soundtrack.

[JimF-LowBari]

14 minutes ago, HockeyDad said:

I don’t know if that’s true. How many times did it go ripping through Philadelphia?  Once. New York?  Once. And so on. There may have been multiple “waves” before it touched every corner of the earth, but as far as I know, not more than once in the same city. I was reading old accounts from my little home town (isn’t the internet wonderful?). It hit after a war bond drive (just like Philly), first case reported Oct 7.  The city shut down (just like today).   Gone by Christmas and never returned. Now - perhaps this is because a large portion of the population was infected and herd immunity developed. Or maybe it mutated into something less harmful. No one knows. 

Gave away my copy of The Great Influenza by John Berry so can’t answer your detailed questions about 1918.

For today I’m thinking there are many people doing the “flatten the curve” bit like myself and have never been exposed. Unless those people only go to places that are virus free they can pick it up somewhere. Don’t think the virus is going to think “hey this guys from Philly and I’ve already hit there so not going back”.

Seriously the scariest part is no one knows why 1918 didn’t bounce around more. IIRC it might have been because it already mutated. But the mutation that killed was the first mutation, not the original Kansas(?) virus

and the Philly war bond drive. Local board of health directed bond drive to be held over objections of other medical people. Reason was support the war and keep up peoples spirits. Then the stuff really hit the fan.

Edited April 11, 2020 by JimF-LowBari

[IllianaLancerContra]

2 minutes ago, DFA1970 said:

I just read a poll conducted about people willing to go to baseball games if it's possible and 72 percent said they would not go to one until there is a vaccine for Covid-19. There is normal before this happened and a new normal which changes society from social community. Even if this virus levels out and we slowly go out in the summer since there is no vaccine and fall and winter comes around and with that a flu and cold season who knows who has what. Science is basically at K level of learning about how this virus spreads...why it effects some with no symptoms and others it drastically affects (including younger people). Basically we can't get tested unless we're already very sick.

Well, that makes me one in 28.

[JimF-LowBari]

8 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

Pneumonia is also what ended up killing many if not most victims in 1918 pandemic - Influenza led to bacterial pneumonia, & because antibiotics hadn't been invented yet it was this that actually killed them.  

Yep people turning blue and black because they were not getting enough oxygen. That gruesome part of the book I remember