HockeyDad Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 8 hours ago, Cappybara said: Best post in this thread. The people who are taking this situation lightly or are clamoring for businesses to open back up in the coming weeks are naive fools. I’m assuming you still have a job, then? Easy to judge when you don’t feel the pain. How long shall the economy be shut down? The only foolish thing is to yield to draconian measures that do more harm than good. So, at what point do we open things back up? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, HockeyDad said: Wrong. Medicine is pretty much as ineffective against Covid today as it was against influenza in 1918. And ironically, although you would be correct about lack of interconnectedness in that era, 1918 was a very different year. We were very interconnected. Young people from all across America were thrown together in the military, crammed into troop ships together, sent to Europe, came back home, dispersed. It was, sadly, a perfect storm to spread the influenza. True about coronavirus but we now have antibiotics and respirators to deal with pneumonia and breathing problems. Hate to think of the death rate today without those. And other than troop movements people were not as mobile as today. Believe those were the points Cappy and I were discussing Edited April 12, 2020 by JimF-LowBari 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, HockeyDad said: I’m assuming you still have a job, then? Easy to judge when you don’t feel the pain. How long shall the economy be shut down? The only foolish thing is to yield to draconian measures that do more harm than good. So, at what point do we open things back up? Ok when do you think they should open up and in what manner? And how would this apply to DCI and touring? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Continental Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, HockeyDad said: To suggest that even to have a discussion on such things means we are being complacent is ridiculous. I can't even..... Edited April 12, 2020 by Continental 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cixelsyd Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: Ok when do you think they should open up and in what manner? And how would this apply to DCI and touring? How would this apply? Drum corps are among the businesses that are shut down by government orders right now. If that does not change, there is no 2021 season either, or 2022, etc. Regarding when we open up, and how: 1. Several have pointed out here that if we simply go into lather/rinse/repeat mode with lockdowns, disruptions to the current tour model will be inevitable. 2. If we stay closed waiting for a vaccine, there will not be a 2021 season. 3. If treatments/prophylactics wipe out the epidemic in time for the 2021 season, only the economic damage will remain. 4. If the epidemic is not completely eradicated, we have a range of possible outcomes anywhere between the extremes of #2 and #3 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 15 hours ago, HockeyDad said: With one big exception - because of the war, the WAS a lot of travel. Almost a perfect storm, sadly. Yes - troops wanted to be home by Christmas. Which for the majority wasn't gonna happen. The troop ships were packed to the max (like a Corps who has had 2 busses break down). Ideal conditions for the virus to spread. And when troops got off the boat in NYC (incubating the virus) & then got on a train home, they spread it all over the country. It also hit the troops that stayed behind. Photo below the Meuse-Argonne American Cemetery in France with the graves of 14,246 American Soldiers (including 5 women & 2 infants; my great uncle is in the top right section). And 1/4 to 1/3 are influenza deaths. It is a STUNNINGLY beautiful place (visiting his grave was #1 on bucket list for years. I made it in 2017). People who think the federal gov't botches everything should see this place - they got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HockeyDad Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: True about coronavirus but we now have antibiotics and respirators to deal with pneumonia and breathing problems. Hate to think of the death rate today without those. And other than troop movements people were not as mobile as today. Believe those were the points Cappy and I were discussing Scary - I read 80 percent mortality for patients who get intubated. I bet treatment strategies are changing rapidly as more is learned. So maybe ventilators are not success strategy now. I don’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HockeyDad Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: Ok when do you think they should open up and in what manner? And how would this apply to DCI and touring? Thanks for asking. I don’t pretend to have the answers. And no one else on the forum does either. So I find the attitudes to be off putting. “Naive”. “Complacent”. No one knows. So how about we tone down the “I know better than you” attitudes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 15 hours ago, Continental said: Complacency as a result of less than expected results or areas relaxing restrictions too quickly. Time will tell. Yes, time will tell. But it will take 6 months to find out what will be going on in 6 months. Hence the predictive modelling - & we did a lot of this when I was in grad school. But the thing with building models is you need good glue. And the glue is the data from prior events (in this case infectious disease outbreaks, some of which are similar to Covid-19, some not so much). There are dozens of ways to get a model wrong, but a very few ways to get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted April 12, 2020 Author Share Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, cixelsyd said: How would this apply? Drum corps are among the businesses that are shut down by government orders right now. If that does not change, there is no 2021 season either, or 2022, etc. Regarding when we open up, and how: 1. Several have pointed out here that if we simply go into lather/rinse/repeat mode with lockdowns, disruptions to the current tour model will be inevitable. 2. If we stay closed waiting for a vaccine, there will not be a 2021 season. 3. If treatments/prophylactics wipe out the epidemic in time for the 2021 season, only the economic damage will remain. 4. If the epidemic is not completely eradicated, we have a range of possible outcomes anywhere between the extremes of #2 and #3 above. Question applies to DCI touring depending on how businesses start opening up. Hearing talk of opening parts of the country depending on things. That would affect touring based on where corps is from (where members are from?), show location, route to show location, getting supplies, etc.... And as you said what if crap hits the fan again and another shutdown (full? partial?) Edited April 12, 2020 by JimF-LowBari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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