skevinp Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 2 hours ago, Jeff Ream said: AZ cancelled marching band season. then i made a joke about certain peoples claims that heat would kill the virus Yeah the joke part I understood. But if you lived here, you’d know that most people don’t spend much time outside this time of year, so heat doesn’t get much opportunity to prove itself one way or the other. The heat actually drives most people indoors in close quarters and recirculating air. Which probably isn’t helping matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 9 hours ago, E3D said: Stick around. I can’t stay away from you lovable lugs for too long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keystone3ply Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, skevinp said: Thanks for the clarification. My sources must have been wrong on the nomenclature. Whatever we call it, the point is that the percentage of deaths per people infected is much lower than 4%. Well, no per CDC as of July 13, 2020. In the US this morning, it's actually .04091611 or 4%. (Or you could say 4.1%) Worldwide as of July 14, 2020 = .04379547 or 4.4%. Edited July 14, 2020 by keystone3ply cx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newseditor44 Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, skevinp said: The case fatality rate just divides deaths by known cases. We know that known cases are just a fraction of actual cases, though we don’t know exactly how many there are. So the actual fatality rate, which suggests the chance of dying if you get it, is much lower. I don't care if the mortality rate is .4% or 4%, any risk is a risk. If it were my kids, they would not be marching until there was a vaccine and a treatment that was proven effective. And I have a feeling there would be many other parents out there that would feel the same. Anytime the word "risk" is associated with my kids, I'm siding with my kids. I love drum corps, but I love my kids a million times more. And I can see the argument "well, the flu carries risk"... yes it does, but we have effective treatments and vaccines for that. Edited July 14, 2020 by Newseditor44 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Continental Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 13 hours ago, skevinp said: It should go beyond saying that I am very sorry about what happened to your wife. But I don’t see how suppressing discussion or eliminating levity would change that outcome, or prevent other similar outcomes in the future. You think that just because I want to keep our spirits up that I don’t care about people dying? You really think I don’t care about people? My wife is high-risk and I have left the house exactly twice in the last 5 months (to take her to the doctor) so as to do everything I can to protect her. And since things have only recently gotten bad here it may well be many more months to come. I care about people as much as anyone. A little levity on DCP helps me get through the day. Or at least it used to. Taking a break from DCP. I don't know what other people are experiencing, but I have heard many sad stories lately that go over and above the situation everyone is dealing with. It's as if 2020 has decided to compete for "The Year from Hell." Everyone is on edge. Many are angry and the expression of their anger (and frustration) has been trying on the best of long time relationships/friendships. Factor in almost anonymous social communication and it's become a soup for consistent rage and arguing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 4 hours ago, keystone3ply said: Well, no per CDC as of July 13, 2020. In the US this morning, it's actually .04091611 or 4%. (Or you could say 4.1%) Worldwide as of July 14, 2020 = .04379547 or 4.4%. No, that is the number of deaths divided by reported cases. It is not the number of deaths divided by people infected, which is what matters as far as understanding the risks to a person who has it. Nobody knows the percentage of deaths per people infected because we don’t know the number the people infected. We can only make educated logical guesses. I don’t know what the CDC’s most recent guess is but a few weeks ago they posited a 10x difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Continental Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, skevinp said: No, that is the number of deaths divided by reported cases. It is not the number of deaths divided by people infected, which is what matters as far as understanding the risks to a person who has it. Nobody knows the percentage of deaths per people infected because we don’t know the number the people infected. We can only make educated logical guesses. I don’t know what the CDC’s most recent guess is but a few weeks ago they posited a 10x difference. Do you personally know anyone who has had Covid-19. Do you know anyone who has died from this? Edited July 14, 2020 by Continental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 9 hours ago, skevinp said: Whatever we call it, the point is that the percentage of deaths per people infected is much lower than 4%. There is no way to know exactly, but it is likely much closer to 0.4% than 4%. I agree, although the range seems to be 0.5%-1.0%. That's five to ten times deadlier than the flu, but not nearly as deadly as the CDC currently shows, because the number of people infected is significantly larger than our testing indicates. If we were testing more people, we'd identify more cases, and the fatality rate would be lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Newseditor44 said: I don't care if the mortality rate is .4% or 4%, any risk is a risk. If it were my kids, they would not be marching until there was a vaccine and a treatment that was proven effective. And I have a feeling there would be many other parents out there that would feel the same. Anytime the word "risk" is associated with my kids, I'm siding with my kids. I love drum corps, but I love my kids a million times more. And I can see the argument "well, the flu carries risk"... yes it does, but we have effective treatments and vaccines for that. I’m not “arguing” anything except that we should all understand what the risk is so that we can make the best decision possible. There is nothing sinister about understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted July 14, 2020 Share Posted July 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Continental said: Do you personally know anyone who has had Covid-19. Do you know anyone who has died from this? Not sure what the heck point you are making??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts