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2022 Season Predictions


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10 minutes ago, Cappybara said:

Brucker has stated that Scouts are the only exception, though it can also be argued that performance mattered a lot more in judging than it does today. Design is much more emphasized now compared to in 88. 

Nice to see you're doing well 👍  Hope you're a full fledged  dentist now!

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8 minutes ago, jjeffeory said:

Nice to see you're doing well 👍  Hope you're a full fledged  dentist now!

Thank you! I graduated dental school last summer, I just finished up my 1st year of orthodontics residency 

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48 minutes ago, Cappybara said:

Thank you! I graduated dental school last summer, I just finished up my 1st year of orthodontics residency 

Totally awesome!

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4 hours ago, Cappybara said:

Nope, the judges would not. It takes a certain amount of competitive inertia in order for judges to place you ahead of corps like BD, SCV, bluecoats, etc. Even for Crown it took first winning a silver to get the gold. It took Bloo winning a silver before they won the gold 

It will take Boston atleast winning a bronze before they win the gold 

I wish this silly competitive inertia thing would go away. It has nothing to do with competitive inertia or having to place top 3 before you win. There are so many other factors at play here. There is so much that goes into winning. Everything has to go just right. It takes a long time to get there. It's a lot of trial and error. The reason new champions, throughout history, have had to place in the top 3 before they win is because its part of the natural progression. They get most things right the years they placed 3rd or 2nd, and sometimes they get it all right the next season (and win), sometimes they get it all right the next season (and still don't win because someone else is better), and sometimes it takes a few more seasons to get it all right and win.

If a corps came out (say Blue Stars) with a championship caliber design and the talent to back it up they would have a shot at winning regardless of past placement. Although this hasn't happened to a new champion, it has happened with other corps. To name a couple 1) Madison '88 - They went from 6th to 1st. In the 80s their two highest placements were 3rd in '81 and 1st in '88 (7th '86 and 6th in '87). They had no "competitive inertia" coming into '88. They won because their design was nearly perfect and the corps was responding to the judges and fans who were raving about the show, and when that happens you get better than better. Regiment went from 10th in '86 to 3rd (semis) in '87. They had no competitive inertia coming into '87. It was the same thing as Madison in '88 although it didn't take them quite as far. 

Boston will win this year if they have the best design and best corps. I actually hope they do - it would prove once and for all how silly this whole competitive inertia thing is.

Edited by queenanne_1536
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3 hours ago, Cappybara said:

Brucker has stated that Scouts are the only exception, though it can also be argued that performance mattered a lot more in judging than it does today. Design is much more emphasized now compared to in 88. 

And Madison probably would have still won in '88 if design was more emphasized then. IMO the Cavies had the overall best design in '88, followed by Madison.

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4 hours ago, Cappybara said:

Boston had a dramatic influx of new staff that were already PROVEN at other corps and the jump from 12th to 6th wasn't just magically done, it was because the corps genuinely dramatically improved both in talent and design in the course of one offseason. There are also larger differences in talent levels from the 12-6th place corps than the 6-1st place corps. Generally, all the corps in the top 5 have the talent to win a championship, and the differences between those corps really come down to show design and execution. It's easier to make a jump from 12th to 6th than 6th to 1st

I agree with all of this, It's a lot harder to move from 6th to 4th to 3rd to 2nd to 1st than it is to move from 12th to 6th. But, I still don't buy the competitive inertia thing, because it's a 1,000 times harder to win than it is to place 4th (unless you're the Blue Devils). They just get it right practically every year.

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5 hours ago, IllianaLancerContra said:

But wouldn’t it be cool if a mid-pack finalist, say Blue Stars, came out with a smoking hot show, both design and execution.  Would the judges have the guts to put them ahead of SVC, Bluecoats, BAC, and BD if they actually believed they were better?   

The Blue Stars have to find a way to, at least, place 7th before even thinking about bronze, silver, or gold. There have been a few years, since their return to Div I/World Class, that they deserved 7th; but it just wasn't in the cards (especially 2010). 
Who knows what this year will bring. It's sounding like a lot of corps would definitely like to have that 8th place spot the Blue Stars have held onto for a number of years, now. What I feel pretty confident about saying, though, is that they won't be falling out of the Top 12. They are just too good to be a non-finalist. I would love to see them place 7th or better; but, realistically, I think they will finish no higher than 8th and no lower than 10th, this year. 

Edited by corps8294
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16 minutes ago, corps8294 said:

There have been a few years, since their return to Div I/World Class, that they deserved 7th; but it just wasn't in the cards (especially 2010). 

Blue Stars might have "Deserved" 7th...........but did they "Earn" 7th?

Not bashing BS BTW. I absolutely love them. 

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Just now, Chief Guns said:

Blue Stars might have "Deserved" 7th...........but did they "Earn" 7th?

Not bashing BS BTW. I absolutely love them. 

Definitely 2010; however, it was SCV that placed above them and I don't think the judging community would have dared to put a corps that was only five years back in Div I above them. So, yeah, the Blue Stars did deserve and earn 7th in 2010; unfortunately, it didn't happen. 

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