2014 Predictions!

[Lincoln]

6. Regiment. Show design still not what will move them up

Unless their show direction takes us for a loop.

Edited January 8, 2014 by LincolnV

[MisterA]

I think it could be one of the most interesting years in drum corps. Every year the 10-17 spots get more exciting, and the newest World Class and top Open Class corps have really improved over the last few years. My guesses for 2014

1. Blue Devils

2. Tie Cadets and Santa Clara Vanguard

4. Carolina Crown

5. Cavaliers

6. Boston Crusaders

7. Phantom Regiment

8. Madison Scouts

9. Bluecoats

10. Blue Knights

11. Blue Stars

12. Spirit Of Atlanta

Semis

13. Colts

14 Pacific Crest

15. Crossmen

16. Academy

17. Blue Devils B

18. Troopers

19. Vanguard Cadets

20. Oregon Crusaders

21. Mandarins

22. Jersey Surf

23. Genesis

24. Spartans

25. Cascades

Edited January 8, 2014 by MisterA

[bearwy]

Troopers in 18th? Not.

[DrumManTx]

I disagree with everyone putting Blue Stars out of finals......completely. I think they're moving up. Am I a honk and huge fan of them? Sure. But watch and listen to 2012 and 2013 and tell me there wasn't a drastic improvement in what kept them out of finals in 2012, brass, visual, and general effect. For me personally I enjoyed 2012 and 2011 more, but the show was much stronger and easier to follow, no denying that. Colorguard and Percussion were just as strong if not stronger. The staff is almost completely identical to last year, I think another year with this new staff can only mean improvement......we'll see. But I'm excited to see what happens. 50th Anniversary too, that'll be special.

My early prediction:

1st - 2nd) Carolina Crown/Blue Devils

3rd - 5th) Santa Clara Vanguard/Bluecoats/The Cadets

6th - 7th) Phantom Regiment/Cavaliers (although much closer to the top 5 this year).

8th - 10th) Boston Crusaders/Madison Scouts/Blue Stars

11th - 14th) Blue Knights/Troopers/Spirit of Atlanta/Colts (this'll be fun).

Really hope Bluecoats pull out another show like Metropolis, I've enjoyed the last three, but nothing has lived up to 2010 yet. I'm hopeful based on the piece they released a few weeks ago.

Edited January 9, 2014 by DrumManTx

[MisterA]

I disagree with everyone putting Blue Stars out of finals......completely. I think they're moving up. Am I a honk and huge fan of them? Sure. But watch and listen to 2012 and 2013 and tell me there wasn't a drastic improvement in what kept them out of finals in 2012, brass, visual, and general effect. For me personally I enjoyed 2012 and 2011 more, but the show was much stronger and easier to follow, no denying that. Colorguard and Percussion were just as strong if not stronger. The staff is almost completely identical to last year, I think another year with this new staff can only mean improvement......we'll see. But I'm excited to see what happens. 50th Anniversary too, that'll be special.

I agree with you that Blue Stars will probably not fall out of finals. I honestly thought they should have been 12th in 2012. I loved Crossmen show that year, but really thought Blue Stars had a much better performance. I can understand other people thinking they could move down though. Since they were 13th and 12th the last two years, and in order for another corps to make finals, someone, usually the lowest corps from the previous year, has to drop, so in that thought pattern it would be Blue Stars. I think you could see a lot of movement in that 10-17th placing corps. I think Blue Stars will probably make finals, but could honestly see them anywhere from 10th-14th place.

[RContra]

Troopers in 18th? Not.

Ya know, until today, I thought thought someone saying "not" after 1994 was impossible, yet, here we are. Perhaps same with that Troop prediction?

I agree completely with DrumManTx, with the exception of further blurring 6th-10th. Crown probably repeats. SCV makes a big push and nearly nabs the title. Blue Stars build on the strength of that crazy only-one-vet drumline from last year. Colts' visual program has them knocking on Finals' door. Etc., etc.

1st - 2nd) Carolina Crown/Blue Devils

3rd - 5th) Santa Clara Vanguard/Bluecoats/The Cadets

6th - 10th) Phantom Regiment/Cavaliers/Boston Crusaders/Madison Scouts/Blue Stars

11th - 14th) Blue Knights/Troopers/Spirit of Atlanta/Colts (this'll be fun).

[Tim K]

Lots of interesting perspectives mentioned since I last view this post.

Regarding the Crossmen and Blue Stars in 2012, at DCI East I thought we could se Crossmen in finals, but knew it would be a battle with Blue Stars who did have a show with some great elements. At Semi's, Crossmen's show had a fire and things worked well for them that night, whereas Blue Stars seemed to be missing that certain spark. However, I will say I was more than impressed with the way Blue Stars handled a challenging situation in 2012 so their return to finals was fine as far as I was concerned, even if it was at Crossmen's expense. However, returning to finals was Blue Stars' goal last year. If they want to be finalists again, they'll have to aim at placing higher rather than just making finals because Crossmen, Troopers, and Colts are all hungry to return to finals and Troopers will not be 18th!!!

DrumManTX must be on winter break and as usual, his predictions are well thought out, but I think that BAC and Madison may surprise people. Even though BAC's show was not to everyone's liking, it was a step higher than previous years as far as difficulty is concerned, and Madison's show was their best since 1999 that for me had an old time Madison feel while being original enough to not have the "I've seen this before" feeling that sometimes Madison evokes. I could see either Madison or BAC place perhaps as high as 6th.

I'm also going to put in a plug for a sentimental favorite of mine--Jersey Surf. Last season Surf took more than it share of heaps of coal for focusing too much on entertainment and not enough on substance. Surf had a much younger corps than most World Class competitors, and they do plan on having a more difficult show while not neglecting the entertainment aspects. I think we'll be impressed.

[DrumManTx]

Regarding BAC and Madison, I was playing it safe there, not a whole lot to go off of as of now. If I was to pick one to move up it would be BAC, I thought the same thing about their show. 2010 - 2012 were relatively simplistic in show design depth and music, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, some straight forward 1812 Overture and a company front is always nice. I think they took a risk last year and went for a show that was a bit harder to portray than their previous offerings and some music that maybe not all of us know, and it paid off. That "Test Drive" from How to Train Your Dragon closer was phenomenal, and the rest of the show was no slouch either. Truly world class guard, great percussion, and brass seems stronger year in year out. All the ingredients are there and they made a step in that direction in 2013. As an organization they seem to be maturing and moving towards something bigger as well, so we'll see. Madison, kick up the drill and depth just one more notch and they're set. Regardless of who finishes where, the 15th - 7th slots have been on a consistent ascent of excellence since about 2007 in my eyes, getting stronger and stronger every year, making it a lot more fun to watch competetively and pumping out some seriously good shows that woulda had a shot at top 6 back in the early to even mid 2000s.

I have some time, so I have some thoughts:

Blue Devils after a non championship year come out firing on absolutely all cylinders, so it'll be hard to beat them See 2009 and 2012. They have a formula, staff consistency, and talent that will not fail them any time soon.

Crown is coming off of a championship season, so I'm not sure what is going to happen. Either it's going to be they found their niche and they will go on a run for a few years or they will be good, but it just doesn't click. Hope the drums keep improving, thought they were stronger in 2013 as compared to 2012. Front ensemble was fantastic.

Bluecoats, I want so badly for them to find what has and hasn't worked the last few years, and do everything that worked at 1 time. I feel like the issue has boiled down to 2 things, in my unprofessional opinion that probably doesn't mean a thing. Visual and General Effect. Guard isn't bad, visual isn't bad, shows aren't bad, but when you have top 4 brass and percussion, that doesn't really cut it. They need to be GREAT. Fix the technique, get the guard a little better, and that's all good. Another issue I have, is the front halves of their shows the last few year, Creep in 2011, Filet and Flume in 2012, the intro and City life in 2013 are all absolutely fantastic, but by the closer it really feels like they are winging it in the show concept. And I remember at the last two theatre casts in June Cesario saying that exact thing. They are usually better by finals, but not completely fixed. You can't have the show start off with a huge bang and go out with a fizzle, if anything it should be the other way around, but it should be the whole show. The Hymn of Axicom piece they have announced, I guarantee, will be one of the best moments of the year, if not THE moment, but so was Creep. And that show finished 7th. I think the meaning behind that piece is a huge hint to the show theme, which could be EPIC, so please don't let this opportunity slip by. Have that amazing pinnacle moment in the show, but don't let that be all we remember from it.

Then there's SCV. Who has gone 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th the last four years. The dream team of a staff and the talent they've gotta be attracting lends me to think they'll medal, easily. Just keep doing what you've been doing, and you're set.

Cadets, will be talented. No doubt. Show theme could work, or backfire. They do patriotic very well, but I hope the narration works. Not at all sure where this will go.

So my top 5:

1st - Blue Devils

2nd - Carolina Crown, unless they at least match this year, then they have a shot at 1st. If not, as low as 4th or 5th? As 2013 showed, the top 4 can get pretty dang tight, not a whole lot of room for error.

3rd - Bluecoats, I'm going off of my gut here. Purely. ONLY 3rd if this show is as good as I think it's going to be. If it's another good moment without consistency throughout the production show, Phantom and Cavaliers could do some damage.

4th - Santa Clara Vanguard, more realistically top 2, but like I said, taking a chance with Bluecoats.

5th - Cadets, because I have no idea.

Cavaliers and Phantom of course, have a shot as well.

[3rd&10]

1-3 BD, Crown, SCV

4-6 Cavaliers, Cadets, Bluecoats

7-9 Scouts, Phantom, Crusaders

10-12 Blue Knights, Crossmen, Blue Stars

13-15 Spirit, Troopers, Colts,

16-18 Pacific Crest, Academy, Oregon Crusaders,

19-22 Surf, Cascades, Pioneer

[MotorCityMusician]

1. Blue Devils (Oh good, just what DCI needs: the Blue Devils with extra motivation and a chip on their shoulder)

2. Carolina Crown (Another fantastic, amazing show... with just enough flaws to keep them from a repeat)

3. Bluecoats (Going out on a limb; after the Top 2, I think the field is WIDE OPEN for bronze)

4. The Cadets (Haven't medaled in an even-numbered year since... 2002?! Why? I have no idea. Cadets just seem to run hot/cold, er, hot/warm.)

5. Santa Clara Vanguard (Lost a bunch of age-outs and haven't had three straight Top 5 finishes since 2002-2004. They'll make it, but barely.)

6. Phantom Regiment (Have finished at every spot in the Top 9 over the past 15 years, could be anywhere. This feels right, though, for now.)

7. The Cavaliers (Baby steps. They'll be a LOT closer to the Top 5, though. Only tenths behind Phantom instead of 3 points.)

8. Boston Crusdaers (Seems like they're a lock to score right around 90 at Finals every year, regardless of what placement that is.)

9. Madison Scouts (Average Finals score, last four years: 88.65. Been waiting for them to take that "next step" back into Top 6. Still waiting.)

10. Blue Knights (They always seem like they're about ready to drop out of Finals. But they've made it in 10 straight seasons.)

11. Troopers (Liked so much of what I saw from them this year. Expecting a big 2014 out of Troop.)

12. Colts (They seem about due for their once-a-decade Finals appearance.)

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13. Spirit of Atlanta (If any of the above three falter, this is the corps that will pass them.)

14. The Academy (This corps is too good to be playing around in 19th place. They had a rough 2008 and rebounded the next season, too.)

15. Blue Stars (Much like Phantom, their "formula" feels a little stale and they need to shake things up. Will that happen in 2014?)

16. Crossmen (Doesn't feel right putting them here, but some must drop if others are to rise.)

17. Oregon Crusaders (A corps definitely on a slow-but-steady upward trend.)

18. Pacific Crest (Best season in corps history. The trick is doing that EVERY summer.)

19. Glassmen (I'll be optimistic and hope they return next year.)

20. Mandarins (Best World Class season in corps history. The trick is doing that EVERY summer.)

21. Jersey Surf (Fun or no, I've seen no signs that the quality will improve enough to move them upward.)

22. Pioneer (Has never broken 80.0 in DCI World Class/Division I competition, but they've been on the field every year for 30+ years now.)

23. Cascades (Has the potential to be Top 20 every year, just really need to bust hump on recruitment.)

what formula? because none of their last 5 shows have been anything like the other.