ibexpercussion Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Depending on the drill writing and drumlin, I think Crossmen could move back into the Top 12. Take nothing away from the other groups around them (Troopers, Spirit, Blue Stars), just call me a bit of an optimistic homer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rannec Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 1,2) Cadets/BD - Two way dogfight from Minnesota until the end. 3) Crown - Percussion will bring them down. ---GAP--- 4) SCV - Organization and programming improving every year. 5) Bluecoats - Close to SCV. Brand new visual staff and marching technique will help greatly. 6) Cavaliers - Slowly attempting to rise back into prominence. 7) Phantom - Personally do not think that the Swan Lake show will translate well to the audience. Falls flat. ---GAP--- 8) Madison - Strong year in all captions, could go higher from here. 9) Crusaders - Drop off after past two years. 10) Blue Knights - Not much movement from years past. 11) Blue Stars - Consistent improvements after 2012 drop off. 12) Spirit - Close to dropping out but manage to stay in. ---Outside looking in--- 13) Crossmen 14) Troopers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2muchcoffeeman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 (edited) Placements? I have no idea. But I predict that the threshold to make finals will be higher than ever. Only 8 times out of 42 has it required a Friday score of at least 86.0 to qualify for Saturday -- but half of those 8 have occurred since 2008. And only in the most recent three years has the five-year average score for Friday's 12th-place corps been 86+. The tide is rising. The major story in DCI during the past few years has been . . . well, we all know what the major story has been. The other major story has been the deepening of quality through the World Class ranks. For all the troubles with the economy, corps finances, corps folding, dysfunction on the BoD . . . the 10-16 corps have become serious good. My stretch prediction: It will take a new record minimum score, 86.95 or higher, to qualify for finals in 2014. Edited January 22, 2014 by 2muchcoffeeman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocketman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We might actually want to wait until everyone has announced their shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corpsband Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We might actually want to wait until everyone has announced their shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Freedman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Placements? I have no idea. But I predict that the threshold to make finals will be higher than ever. Only 8 times out of 42 has it required a Friday score of at least 86.0 to qualify for Saturday -- but half of those 8 have occurred since 2008. And only in the most recent three years has the five-year average score for Friday's 12th-place corps been 86+. The tide is rising. The major story in DCI during the past few years has been . . . well, we all know what the major story has been. The other major story has been the deepening of quality through the World Class ranks. For all the troubles with the economy, corps finances, corps folding, dysfunction on the BoD . . . the 10-16 corps have become serious good. My stretch prediction: It will take a new record minimum score, 86.95 or higher, to qualify for finals in 2014. I admire the statistical detail, although I do think there are other factors. For example, part of the method the judges use pick the score of the first corps of the evening is to leave room at the top for the best corps. So it's possible that the top corps are worse than they used to be and so the judges didn't need to leave as much room. Granted, this is ridiculous. Less ridiculous is the possibility the judges got better at predicting how good the top corps would be, and so they didn't need to leave as much headroom, so to speak. Or, maybe they just decided to compress the range .. oh, never mind, drum corps got better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2muchcoffeeman Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Yeah, number-crunching takes you only so far when there's so much subjectivity involved. I, too, thought about what kind of relationship the 12th-place prelims score has had to the 1st-place prelims score, and if it has changed over time, but I was too lazy to analyze. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrumManTx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Someone else I'm watching is Pacific Crest......looking over their recent staff announcements and seeing who they retained that they got in the last few years makes me think they'll keep on improving. Their show this year seems pretty unique to the drum corps field. Excited to see where they take it after a very solid 2013. I'm thinking they'll become a part of that 12th - 15th crowd rather than the 16th - 19th crowd. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlamMan Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 (edited) 1. SCV 2. BD 3. Crown 4. Cadets 5. Madison 6. Phantom 7. Blue Coats 8. Boston 9. Cavies 10. Blue Knights 11. Spirit 12. Troopers Edited January 24, 2014 by FlamMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjeffeory Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 1. SCV 2. BD 3. Crown 4. Cadets 5. Madison 6. Phantom 7. Blue Coats 8. Boston 9. Cavies 10. Blue Knights 11. Spirit 12. Troopers Any time I see "Blue Coats" listed, I just laugh because I'm guessing that there may be some "it's Bluecoats" comments coming soon after. Also, Cavies in 9th would be their worst placement since 1983. Madison in 5th would be their BEST placement since 1997. The rest of the predictions seem plausible. Would be interesting to see Madison in 5th again though... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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