2015 Predictions

[Kamarag]

It's not possible in drum corps, but in other adjudicated arts, there have certainly been occasions when the judges have opted for "no winner".

Interesting...any good examples?

[HornTeacher]

Interesting...any good examples?

http://www.sousafoundation.net/Default.aspx?ID=32

Look into the long paragraph on the right side of the page immediately following the "Saxophone" list of selections.

[N.E. Brigand]

Interesting... any good examples?

I feel like it's happened at some film competitions, but what jumps to mind is the Cleveland International Piano Competition (a major event whose winner gets a cash prize of $50,000, several dozen concert engagements, and a Carnegie Hall recital). However, on looking up their results, it appears I was remembering 1993, when they awarded a first place and two third places, but no second place. I know there have been years when the Pulitzer jury has opted not to give out certain awards, like best novel. And this very year in the Hugo awards, which are perhaps the best-known recognition of fantasy and science fiction, I have read that there is a big push to vote "none of the above" in many categories (which has apparently long been an option), because a clique in the voting membership calling themselves the "Sad Puppies" organized, as had never been done before, to successfully nominate a slate of choices on political rather than artistic grounds (although I think the Puppies would say just the opposite was true: that they were correcting an inherent if never stated bias of the membership at large). That one made some major news outlets; George R.R. Martin has become a leader against the Puppies' campaign.

Edited June 9, 2015 by N.E. Brigand

[Kamarag]

And this very year in the Hugo awards, which are perhaps the best-known recognition of fantasy and science fiction, I have read that there is a big push to vote "none of the above" in many categories (which has apparently long been an option), because a clique in the voting membership calling themselves the "Sad Puppies" organized, as had never been done before, to successfully nominate a slate of choices on political rather than artistic grounds (although I think the Puppies would say just the opposite was true: that they were correcting an inherent if never stated bias of the membership at large). That one made some major news outlets; George R.R. Martin has become a leader against the Puppies' campaign.

Yea, I've been following that story fairly closely (John Scalzi and others post about it on Twitter frequently). It's even more complex than that, as several of the nominees removed themselves from consideration, as they didn't want to be associated with the flawed process. The group trying to swing the nominations was, not surprisingly, back by religious organizations.

Edited June 9, 2015 by Kamarag

[N.E. Brigand]

Thanks for putting that together! It might have been more helpful to take people's rankings from separate times in the off-season. Rather than using a cumulative type of measurement (Aug.-Nov., Aug.-Jan. etc.), it would probably be more telling to look at it as "August to November", "December to February", "March to June", etc. Using that method isn't as effective when you aren't keeping the people who are "voting" consistent for each period, but it may show the trends a little better with just a bit more error.

I'm glad you requested this breakdown. Since the number of predictions made in different months varied widely, I didn't break it down by quarter, but I did break it into distinct periods.

I count 30 predictions in August, the results of which, already noted, are:

1.6 Blue Devils

2.9 Cadets

3.2 Bluecoats

4.0 Santa Clara Vanguard

4.4 Carolina Crown

5.4 Cavaliers

7.5 Phantom Regiment

7.8 Blue Knights

9.1 Blue Stars

9.8 Boston Crusaders

10.6 Madison Scouts

12.4 Crossmen

The four-month period of September-December totals just 18 predictions, which average as follows:

1.6 Blue Devils

3.2 Bluecoats

3.3 Cadets

3.6 Santa Clara Vanguard

3.9 Carolina Crown

5.8 Cavaliers

8.2 Blue Knights

8.2 Phantom Regiment

9.2 Boston Crusaders

9.8 Blue Stars

10.2 Madison Scouts

12.2 Crossmen

January-March had but 16 predictions, whose average is:

2.0 Cadets

2.4 Blue Devils

3.7 Bluecoats

4.1 Carolina Crown

4.8 Santa Clara Vanguard

5.2 Cavaliers

7.4 Phantom Regiment

7.8 Blue Knights

9.2 Boston Crusaders

9.8 Blue Stars

10.8 Madison Scouts

11.7 Crossmen

Things picked up in April, with 25 predictions. They average:

2.0 Blue Devils

2.5 Cadets

3.1 Carolina Crown

4.3 Santa Clara Vanguard

4.5 Bluecoats

5.1 Cavaliers

7.5 Phantom Regiment

8.2 Blue Knights

9.0 Boston Crusaders

10.0 Blue Stars

10.0 Madison Scouts

12.3 Crossmen

And here is the average of May's 15 predictions:

1.9 Blue Devils

1.9 Cadets

3.1 Carolina Crown

4.2 Bluecoats

5.1 Santa Clara Vanguard

5.4 Cavaliers

7.3 Phantom Regiment

8.1 Blue Knights

9.5 Boston Crusaders

10.3 Blue Stars

10.7 Madison Scouts

11.9 Crossmen

There have only been 9 predictions in June, so I'll save that for next week.

[chris ncsu]

And here is the average of May's 15 predictions:

1.9 Blue Devils

1.9 Cadets

3.1 Carolina Crown

4.2 Bluecoats

5.1 Santa Clara Vanguard

5.4 Cavaliers

7.3 Phantom Regiment

8.1 Blue Knights

9.5 Boston Crusaders

10.3 Blue Stars

10.7 Madison Scouts

11.9 Crossmen

There have only been 9 predictions in June, so I'll save that for next week.

Tie! How many corps can BD tie for 1st? :) Well, that's not really fair, it would be 3 first-place ties for BD, and 2 for Cadets -- and in all 3 previous cases, different corps on the other side (Regiment, SCV, Cavaliers), which I think is interesting. Maybe it's Crown's turn for a tie :)

[xandandl]

I've always thought that 12th place ties are the best.

[cf144]

I've always thought that 12th place ties are the best.

12th place tie Friday nite would be cool - would mean 13 performances Saturday night, no?

[Kamarag]

12th place tie Friday nite would be cool - would mean 13 performances Saturday night, no?

Yes.

[chaddyt]

You can just make a new prediction without making such a big deal about it

My thoughts on what you said -- I see what you mean. But I think you're looking for WAY too much meaning in this show. The title gives them some design points to work around, some inspiration for the visual design mostly (somewhat for the music design). Beyond that, it's all about stoking an audience response from the corps's attitude, intensity, performance level, and just really great music/marching/spinning. And if you can get people to sometimes notice some pretty cool/interesting stuff going on in relation to 10, then that's a big bonus and something they want to do.

Think:

Cavaliers 2001 Four Corners

Cavaliers 2002 Frameworks

Cavaliers 2003 Spin Cycle

BD 2003 Phenomenon of Cool

BD 2004 Summertrain Blues Mix

to name a few.

But look at what judges have been rewarding lately.

2014 - Felliniesque

2013 - E=MC^₂

2012 - Cabaret Voltaire

2011 - Between Angels & Demons

2010 - Through A Glass Darkly

All of which have a little more thematic substance than what the Cadet's concept is this year.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm excited to see them return to just playing/marching/spinning their ##### off, but I'm just worried that they're going to have this technically proficient powerhouse of a corps that ends up getting bypassed by the other heavy hitters who've got a little more depth to their design.

Obviously, I'm still allowed to love their show, even if the judges feel there are stronger programs out there. I just want to see them win gold again. :)

Edit: to not spell like a dumb-A

Edited June 9, 2015 by chaddyt