Why is Drum Corps the most predictable activity in all of sports?

[Rocketman]

The problem is this, design is subjective, yet, what is mostly considered in scoring. Not bagging here, but, is BD's design constantly better by design or by perception? Would, say, Blue Knights get the same credit for doing BD's 2018 show exactly the same way? That is the underlying question. We can assume that corps A's show has a superior design because that is the way it has been for years. While reality (in this case meaning, just the general audience) just sit there and don't 'get it'. 

[Terri Schehr]

2 hours ago, Fran Haring said:

You want predictability?

Try being a Mets, Jets, and Nets fan.

It's a stone lock that those teams will somehow find a way to screw up a good thing.

 

Until two years ago, I could say the same thing. 

[Fran Haring]

1 hour ago, DeanInChicago said:

This topic reminds me of ordering a pizza.

A thin-crust pepperoni is almost always going to win.

And pity those who always want anchovies.

[cfirwin3]

3 hours ago, Bluzes said:

Thanks but I didn't come here to be psycho analyzed. My question is why does the power of a napkin drawing (sketch at a restaurant) in October trump countless hours of practice, sweat, hard work when the outcome has been decided first time out of the box. Why aren't there any parallels to other sports or art forms. OK drum corps is not a sport today but will be tomorrow in other discussions Take 15 new paintings shuffle in different art critics what would the level of agreement be or 15 new music albums, movies  point to any other subjective activity that demonstrates such a hive mentality.

Instead of attacking me which is welcomed and part of the fun of posting things these days (troll alert). Explain what is it about a top show that towers it over the rest? Is one saying as fans being a boning intellectual is OK but don't drink the Kool Aid from over there. This reasoning comes from the same group of individuals that in the heat last week made some corps put more clothes on but kept the props which a huge dehydration factor in & of itself? If one think's that was a rational decision then I guess we deserve the rest of the reasoning.

I am sitting here clicking my heels saying three times "I believe in the power of the napkin" I think it's working. Thanks

Ummm...

I answered all of that in the very first part of my response.

As did some others...

There is a rubric.  Programs are written for the elements of the rubric... just like other program oriented activities.  It's not hard to explain really.  Once programs are written, they can't be easily rewritten.  You "dance with the one that brung ya".

[Box5Opinion]

Not predictable, don't bash the Blue Devils for figuring out the score sheets and being to develop and maximizing their shows. 

[luv4corps]

3 hours ago, BRASSO said:

 Also, in DCI Drum Corps not all "missed, botched solos " are handled the same either. For example, if a solo is totally flubbed and becomes a " train wreck " ( as you said ) due to an engineering malfunction ( an adult creativity ) during the show, DCI judges will overlook this.  However, if a performer solo is similarly flubbed in execution and delivery, and thus becomes a " train wreck" the DCI judges will take a far less forgiving stance on these types of botched solos in the points they will then assign.

Which, I believe, is the only fair way to handle two very different scenarios.

[jwillis35]

8 hours ago, mfrontz said:

Just a different take - if the results were markedly different every night the complaining would be MUCH more intense. What reason would the judges give? 'I like this show better?'  How would the staff and kids know what they needed to do to improve?

A relative consistency in judging is necessary not only for educational reasons but also for trust in the competitive aspect of the activity. 

Excellent points. 

Things do vary when it comes to judging, scores and placements in DCI; but it happens over longer stretches of time. Someone else made an excellent point about how in the 1990s you almost always knew who the top 3 or 4 corps would be. That has changed today.  Bluecoats and Crown have emerged as top 5 corps most years.  Phantom and Madison still have excellent units but no longer seem to score well enough to be top 5. Boston is beginning a surge up the ranks. So change does happen.  

However, if what we are looking for is night to night changes where a 12th place group can beat a 1st place group I just don't ever see that happening.  Such movement in scoring is difficult in a "sport" like drum corps. I use the term sport loosely because to me drum corps is an art form that features music, movement, dance, drama, staging, props, narration, singing, etc. It is an activity that is judged by various requirements, such as visual, music, general effect.  Within those areas judges are looking at content, achievement, design, analysis, etc. 

Each drum corps must program according to the talent they have. They must meet certain metrics in demand, achievement, design, analysis, etc. in order to move up in score.  All of that depends on the effectiveness of the design (GE), the ability of the performs (performance), the level of design/content and demand (visual and music analysis), and the ability of corps and staff to make changes and clean as the season goes on.  

Most drum corps do not begin the season with a show that could beat the Blue Devils. In many cases it would be inappropriate for a staff to design a show of that level of demand for a corps with MMs in the 14 to 17 years of age category. Especially if the corps has a number of inexperienced marchers and/or players. Realistically only 5 or 6 drum corps in the activity today can put together a program that would allow them to compete with BD, some years maybe less. 

Sports are really no different.  Take my lowly Cleveland Browns.  Sure, they can pull and upset on any given Sunday and beat the likes of New England; but who is likely getting to the Super Bowl? New England. 

It's the same with the NBA. Look at the Golden State Warriors. They have won 3 out of 4 championships. Yes, they get beat some during the season; but when you have to play them in a 7 game series it's pretty tough...and predictable.  Why? Talent. Experience. Coaching. Depth. Kind of sounds like a few drum corps that also reside in the Bay area (SCV, BD).

Edited July 25, 2018 by jwillis35

[barigirl78]

I liken the predictability of drum corps more to the predictability of college academic rankings.

The elite colleges (e.g. Harvard, Yale) are elite because they attract the most elite students and have the most elite faculties.  The order of the rankings doesn't change much over the years.

In the ancient days when members just joined a corps that was close to them, you could see more variation in rankings.  But, now that it is an activity that students choose where they apply and are willing to fly from anywhere--even foreign countries--to attend, it's different.

[jwillis35]

5 minutes ago, barigirl78 said:

I liken the predictability of drum corps more to the predictability of college academic rankings.

The elite colleges (e.g. Harvard, Yale) are elite because they attract the most elite students and have the most elite faculties.  The order of the rankings doesn't change much over the years.

In the ancient days when members just joined a corps that was close to them, you could see more variation in rankings.  But, now that it is an activity that students choose where they apply and are willing to fly from anywhere--even foreign countries--to attend, it's different.

Perfect example. 

[gak27]

I think I remember seeing a rather lengthy thread on here at some point titled "Competitive Inertia"...