DrumScorps

DCI World Championship Semis - Friday, August 9, 2019

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8 hours ago, kevingamin said:

It’s 11. I think I’m going to shut it down. I have Rhythm in BLUE tomorrow morning so a good night’s sleep would be a good thing.

I AM covering Finals tomorrow, however, so we’ll get together one last time and celebrate our activity. See you then!

Thank you Kevin for your terrific coverage! Great job.

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7 hours ago, DAYGO said:

J Kennedy is a CLOWN

Did I miss the joke?

The man has forgotten more about DC than most fans have ever known.

But thanks for your input.

Next up: the BAC guard member who knocked off the giant's helmet should be drawn and quartered live on the 50 if BAC doesn't win?

 

Edited by garfield
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7 hours ago, 27Socal said:

For prelims, I predicted, by using the past score history approach,  that Bluecoats would win by .6, they won by .1

I predicted a tie for semi's, using the same method,  so it was off by .15

Can you tell me where the S&P500 will finish next week?  I have to make a mortgage payment...

Oh, and the winning lottery numbers would be nice, too.

Do you really think you can reduce a 100% subjective activity down to math?

Besides, I think Bruckner has beaten you to the "momentum" analysis.

 

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7 hours ago, 27Socal said:

I predicted Kennedy would have Bluecoats over BD by .2 , based on past history with the two.

Kennedy had Bluecoats over BD by .2

 

Don't you really mean "guessed"?

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

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6 hours ago, pbeau said:

Did the person who made the decision to put the Spartans on after a full day of drum corps actually think people would stay??

See, you and many others here don't understand.

Spartans are not "the draw".

 

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8 hours ago, Glenn426 said:

 

in the end All Judges are human can change their mind, but at this level when they have to face these designers in a couple of months in BOA and in WGI there's history to look back on how they react to certain designers..

As everyone dissects the whys and how’s of the current DCI scoring model, this ☝🏼 Is what I was always told had lots of weight on the “judge in one activity vs designer/teacher in another” 

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4 hours ago, skevinp said:

Standing up outdoors?

Almost. 

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7 hours ago, corps8294 said:

Is tomorrow night going to be Dan Potter free? 

No, since he's probably in line to replace Mr. BC.

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I'm OK with Dan. A little annoying at times, but he means well. 

James Earl Jones to replace BC. 

THIS. Is Drum Corps International. 

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4 hours ago, 27Socal said:

The method isn't perfect, but sometimes is pretty close.   The year Crown won, it was off by about .2 on the point spread I think and predicted the correct winner

To predict what each finals week judge will do, it basically uses the head to head scores between two corps for the entire season for that one judge.  If there is just one show, it uses that show's spread.  If more than one show, it uses the average spread. 

You're right,  the further back the head to heads are, it might become less accurate.   And if there are NO head to heads (which happened for 3 of the 2019 finals judges),  it uses the score for the other one corps at another show on or closest to the same date, with another judge.   I know, not good to do that, but have to use something for a best guest.

Then just add up the point spreads for all the judges that favor one corps and then add up the point spreads that favor the other corps.  The corps with the larger of the point spread sub totals is the predicted winner. Then subtract the smaller point spread from the larger point spread to get the total point spread. 

It has become much quicker and easier to get the judges data using a website called FrontEnsemble.com .  It has every score given by every judge for every show for the whole season. You can look at one judge and only 2 corps that they may have judged in all the  shows for that judge, and see their scores in a nice chart.  I have to give a lot of credit to who ever developed that site and gathered all that data.  That was lot of work.

It's fun to try it and see how close you can come to the actual results.  I have an engineering degree (which the self discipline i learned in drum corps definitely helped me get), so i think it's usually better to figure out a problem based on data and facts than on "feelings".  The marketing guys and lawyers picking a jury hate people who think like that.

I used to think that a show result depended mostly on the run a corps has and less on judges bias (intentional or unintentional).   Poor naive former me.  Now I think it's the opposite.  Why do you think DCI releases the finals week judging panels on Thursday of finals week?  It's because in past decades, the finals panels used to be released much earlier in the season. Then the corps would tailor their show design only to the judges (and their bias) that were judging finals and pretty much ignore the other judges. It's kind of like knowing all the answers to a test months ahead of time. You spend all your time going in one direction and not explore other designs that other judges might like and have a wider variety of shows that the audiences might like better (like we have today).  Those staffs were smart.  They knew that psychologically,  when one of those finals judges gave them an opinion early in the season,  they would tend not to change the opinion as to not make themselves look bad.   That's what this method is based on. That judges tend to keep same opinion (or close to the same opinion) about a corps and it's show for the entire season.  And since there aren't "tics" any more (that some would argue are a better way to judge the execution captions and not have to resort to slotting),  the only things left are the judge's opinion and their psychology.  The method obviously only works after you find out who the finals judges are, which is very late in the season now.  We find out the same time the corps do,   so it's pretty much too late to for them to tailor their shows to the finals panel in major ways, but we have enough time to go back through the earlier data and make our predictions based on past biases. Of course, when a judge does change an opinion from earlier, it tends to throw a monkey wrench into the whole thing.

 

To illustrate 27Socal's point.  If we wanted to know (guess, predict ... you pick the verb) how J. Harper would judge between the Bluecoats and Crown in the Brass Caption in Finals tonight, we would look at how he judged between the two in the 3 meetings where he judged them both.

Allentown .... Crown up by 0.2

Nightbeat .... Crown up by 0.15

Broken Arrow ... Crown up by 0.2

It would be surprising (under the theory above) if J. Harper scored much outside of this range.  Would having Crown up by 0.1 be strange? not much, would having them up by 0.25 be strange? not much.  Having Bluecoats up by 0.15 be strange?  Yep.

27Socal did this with each of the championship judging panels for the top two corps.  I'm pretty sure most of the staffs and many others either know this kind of stuff without having to look at frontensemble to get the data.  They know (believe, guess, whatever) which judges have a predilection to either like what they are doing or to favor the way someone else is doing it.

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