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If Current DCI Model Gets Cut Back...


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20 minutes ago, Fred Windish said:

From time to time, we need to recognize those who continually attempt to manufacture hysteria are hurting, not helping. Difficult as it may be, ignore providing them opportunities.

Drum corps is NOT ending.

Drum corps, and you, will be making adjustments. This situation is like going on a ‘drum corps diet.’  

Agreed.  In fact a well needed diet for all of society in all of its activities.  

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23 minutes ago, Fred Windish said:

From time to time, we need to recognize those who continually attempt to manufacture hysteria are hurting, not helping. Difficult as it may be, ignore providing them opportunities.

Drum corps is NOT ending.

Drum corps, and you, will be making adjustments. This situation is like going on a ‘drum corps diet.’  

My problem is that I've failed every single diet that I've ever attempted.  :spitting:    

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13 hours ago, N.E. Brigand said:

Life won't be back to normal until 2022.

While that is possible, I think it is too early to say that for sure.  Also too early to say things like this:

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That doesn't mean it will be the way it is now for two years, but until there's a vaccine --fall 2021 at the earliest, by most estimates-- it will not be safe to gather in large groups.

Why?  You give one reason 15 sentences further down:

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One other thing that would help: antiviral and therapeutic drugs.

Yes.  And this solution is not limited to new formulations that require 18 months to bring forth.  We are discovering treatments among our existing arsenal of fully-vetted prescription medications.

There are other profound discoveries being made every day.  Just recently, our health experts discovered that face coverings can benefit the general population, not just trained health professionals.  Who knew?

Since so much still remains to be seen, I am trying to refrain from comment regarding your description of the "new normal" (sorry JimF).  But regarding this:

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The epidemiologists probably do the contact tracing via some sort of app on your phone that gives them a good record of every other phone (and its owner) you've been close to. It's going to be weird and seriously intrusive. But it's the only possible alternative to staying locked down until there's a vaccine. If these steps don't happen, we get New York levels of infection all over again, but in lots of places.

a.  If the virus was passed exclusively via phones, then that would make sense.  Since it is instead passed by people, and there is no assurance that a phone is in the same place as its owner, I think it would be far more effective to ask where the person has been.

b.  To say that is "the only possible alternative to staying locked down" is, at best, silly.

c.  And to promise NYC levels of infection "in lots of places" without that precise set of intrusive measures is, at best... (there is no polite way to finish my sentence).

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Even with all that happening, probably 20% of the population is going to be nervous and will stay home as much as possible.

Three months ago, I was told right here on this forum that the DCI BoD was prepared to make a change that would alienate many of those same people.  This must not be a show-stopper (so to speak).

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--Some event locations might suddenly be under shelter-in-place orders in the middle of DCI's tour, meaning shows are cancelled. Imagine if it happens in Indianapolis in August.

--An entire corps might suddenly be quarantined for two weeks when one of their members falls ill.

If these measures are still standard operating procedure in the summer of 2021, it would be unwise to send a drum corps on "tour".  The financial consequences of committing to a tour with all its expenses, then missing two weeks or more of its revenue opportunities, would be fatal.  Coping with that would require that the 2021 season be materially different in nature, such that either expenses are greatly reduced, or commitments are shorter-term and/or insured against last-minute cancellation. 

For any given corps, if that means doing more shows close to home, or breaking "the tour" into two or three shorter "tours", then so be it. 

For DCI as a whole, if that means integrating open-class and world-class to fill shows more locally, instead of staging two segregated tours, then so be it.

If that is the shape the 2021 season takes, I am not so sure I would call it a "cutback".  I prefer the term "comeback".

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1 minute ago, cixelsyd said:

While that is possible, I think it is too early to say that for sure.  Also too early to say things like this:

Why?  You give one reason 15 sentences further down:

Yes.  And this solution is not limited to new formulations that require 18 months to bring forth.  We are discovering treatments among our existing arsenal of fully-vetted prescription medications.

There are other profound discoveries being made every day.  Just recently, our health experts discovered that face coverings can benefit the general population, not just trained health professionals.  Who knew?

Since so much still remains to be seen, I am trying to refrain from comment regarding your description of the "new normal" (sorry JimF).  But regarding this:

a.  If the virus was passed exclusively via phones, then that would make sense.  Since it is instead passed by people, and there is no assurance that a phone is in the same place as its owner, I think it would be far more effective to ask where the person has been.

b.  To say that is "the only possible alternative to staying locked down" is, at best, silly.

c.  And to promise NYC levels of infection "in lots of places" without that precise set of intrusive measures is, at best... (there is no polite way to finish my sentence).

Three months ago, I was told right here on this forum that the DCI BoD was prepared to make a change that would alienate many of those same people.  This must not be a show-stopper (so to speak).

If these measures are still standard operating procedure in the summer of 2021, it would be unwise to send a drum corps on "tour".  The financial consequences of committing to a tour with all its expenses, then missing two weeks or more of its revenue opportunities, would be fatal.  Coping with that would require that the 2021 season be materially different in nature, such that either expenses are greatly reduced, or commitments are shorter-term and/or insured against last-minute cancellation. 

For any given corps, if that means doing more shows close to home, or breaking "the tour" into two or three shorter "tours", then so be it. 

For DCI as a whole, if that means integrating open-class and world-class to fill shows more locally, instead of staging two segregated tours, then so be it.

If that is the shape the 2021 season takes, I am not so sure I would call it a "cutback".  I prefer the term "comeback".

The key to a lot of this will be the number of individuals who came down with Covid-19 in a mild or subclinical form, and have developed antibodies.  These individuals are, in effect, vaccinated (in the 18th Century it was recognized that mild infections could prevent smallpox, and many were inoculated.  There are surviving letters from John Adams to his wife Abigail discussing whether they should have it done to their children (he had it done in Philadelphia while he was at one of the Continental Congress meetings).  Edward Jenner later refined the technique.

Individuals surviving an infection & then being resistant has been how the human population has survived over eons.  When enough are immune, the virus finds it difficult to obtain a susceptible host and dies out (when this happens in livestock it is called 'herd immunity').  And it will work here.  It will just take time.

 

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11 minutes ago, cixelsyd said:

If these measures are still standard operating procedure in the summer of 2021, it would be unwise to send a drum corps on "tour".  The financial consequences of committing to a tour with all its expenses, then missing two weeks or more of its revenue opportunities, would be fatal.  Coping with that would require that the 2021 season be materially different in nature, such that either expenses are greatly reduced, or commitments are shorter-term and/or insured against last-minute cancellation. 

For any given corps, if that means doing more shows close to home, or breaking "the tour" into two or three shorter "tours", then so be it. 

For DCI as a whole, if that means integrating open-class and world-class to fill shows more locally, instead of staging two segregated tours, then so be it.

If that is the shape the 2021 season takes, I am not so sure I would call it a "cutback".  I prefer the term "comeback".

You are spot on. All are currently being considered

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