year1buick Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, IllianaLancerContra said: Dinosaurs (minus the boids(nyuk nyuk)) had a bad day 65M yrs ago when 7+ mile wide asteroid hit near Cancun Mexico. The idea of a population limiting disease is a classic example of a density-dependent population limiter - the denser the population, the more impact the disease has. This is the idea behind the social distancing. It is also why you see a lot more cases in high population areas - its not just that more people per unit area are there, it is also that they can infect each other. Speaking of asteroids, have you heard of Apophis? You might want to watch this. Wow, I hadn’t heard of that. I guess it’ll be an interesting seven years if it threads the keyhole. I didn’t realize he was the director of the Hayden Planetarium. That was one of my favorite parts of the Museum of Natural History. (I wish we could’ve stayed longer but we were on a tight schedule and trying to keep up with a bunch of hyper teenagers.) edit: I just read that newer calculations have pretty much determined it’s not a viable possibility. But he’s fun to listen to. Also, “density-dependent population limiter” is a much cooler way of stating what I was thinking. Edited April 17, 2020 by year1buick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Continental Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) NM Edited April 17, 2020 by Continental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E3D Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, year1buick said: Wow, I hadn’t heard of that. I guess it’ll be an interesting seven years if it threads the keyhole. I didn’t realize he was the director of the Hayden Planetarium. That was one of my favorite parts of the Museum of Natural History. (I wish we could’ve stayed longer but we were on a tight schedule and trying to keep up with a bunch of hyper teenagers.) If I lived anywhere on the west coast (coast) I would be moving inland. Surprised this type of information gets no attention from the so called media. Only time they will mention it is if somehow the asteroid can register for a political party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cappybara Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 hours ago, cixelsyd said: I see the difference. But because I see the difference, I understand that those latter, speculative statements are statements of opinion made with the intent of creating hope - not claims of fact that intend to misinform. When you introduce statistics, numbers, anything quantifiable/objective, it is not opinion, it is fact. What do we call facts that are not facts? Fake news/misinformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cixelsyd Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, Cappybara said: When you introduce statistics, numbers, anything quantifiable/objective, it is not opinion, it is fact. Predictions, projections and models have lots of statistics, numbers, etc. Are they facts? Because if so... Quote What do we call facts that are not facts? Fake news/misinformation. ... then you are saying the uncertainty/error can only be classified as "fake news" or "misinformation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) On 4/16/2020 at 1:07 PM, JimF-LowBari said: Annnd back to 1200+ new cases (PA) in last 24 hours..... (27k+ total and fifth highest in country). Please don’t get too comfortable folks..... gonna be a while #### up to 1706 in last 24 hours and only few 100 shy of 30k total. Going wrong freaking way..... Glad guvs are getting together to plan for a way to (hopefully) safely reopen but ####. Scary part is that state health secretary yesterday said we were flattening the curve.... Projections, estimates, etc and you just never know. Thinking way corps and DCI could come back when the time comes but too many variable$. Edited April 17, 2020 by JimF-LowBari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cixelsyd Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, JimF-LowBari said: #### up to 1706 in last 24 hours and only few 100 shy of 30k total. Going wrong freaking way..... Glad guvs are getting together to plan for a way to (hopefully) safely reopen but ####. Scary part is that state health secretary yesterday said we were flattening the curve.... Projections, estimates, etc and you just never know. Thinking way corps and DCI could come back when the time comes but too many variable$. Do not panic. States are changing the way they report their counts to the CDC, adding probable COVID-19 deaths to the counts even when there was no positive test for the virus. This creates an upward bump in reported numbers when a state makes the switch in methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, cixelsyd said: Do not panic. States are changing the way they report their counts to the CDC, adding probable COVID-19 deaths to the counts even when there was no positive test for the virus. This creates an upward bump in reported numbers when a state makes the switch in methodology. Not panicking just using my state as an example of where we might be. State health secretary says possibly some test results were delayed due to Easter. This is number of cases (29k+) not deaths so does not apply to new method of reporting deaths Edited April 17, 2020 by JimF-LowBari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Statistics are incorrectly stated 107% of the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllianaLancerContra Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, year1buick said: Wow, I hadn’t heard of that. I guess it’ll be an interesting seven years if it threads the keyhole. I didn’t realize he was the director of the Hayden Planetarium. That was one of my favorite parts of the Museum of Natural History. (I wish we could’ve stayed longer but we were on a tight schedule and trying to keep up with a bunch of hyper teenagers.) edit: I just read that newer calculations have pretty much determined it’s not a viable possibility. But he’s fun to listen to. Also, “density-dependent population limiter” is a much cooler way of stating what I was thinking. You are correct for 2029, but some models show a much higher chance in early 22nd century. Nonetheless, I still predict all the people who freaked out about the Mayan Apocalypse in 2012 are going to have a field day with this. Edited April 17, 2020 by IllianaLancerContra further clarification and pontificating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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