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2022 Season Predictions


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On 6/17/2022 at 5:30 PM, JAZZER said:

What's your take on Mandarins?

Good question! They were magnificent last year, and could inch up a notch or two. 

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On 6/18/2022 at 5:57 AM, waliman4444 said:

Radiosteele: What about the Cadets?...or did I miss something?

I didn't know what to say about them, so I didn't. HD video will only show so much and their brass sounded a bit restrained in '21. However they could have been blowing their huevos off live. The mid-tier corps have stepped up their game, so I cannot say what placement opportunities this has for Cadets. 

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I do have a quick story on the alleged competitive inertia theory. I was traveling with BAC in 09 and our first shows were in the midwest...Ohio, I think.  At the very first show, Phantom Regiment (the 08 champion) kicked everyone's butt score wise finishing far ahead of Boston, Crown, Blue Stars and everyone else.  After the show,  I overhead some staff from BAC and Blue Stars talking together about the results, and they were saying Regiment was getting 5 or 6 points extra just for having won the previous year.

Funny thing....as the days went on, that gap closed each night and by the time a week or two had passed,  the judges had embraced reality and all those corps had overtaken Reg. Was this competitive inertia? It does sound like it. 

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6 hours ago, radiosteele said:

Good question! They were magnificent last year, and could inch up a notch or two. 

K, seemed like you forgot to include 'em in your post 🙂 A prediction thread. Best of luck and health and safety to all this year!

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1 hour ago, craiga said:

I do have a quick story on the alleged competitive inertia theory. I was traveling with BAC in 09 and our first shows were in the midwest...Ohio, I think.  At the very first show, Phantom Regiment (the 08 champion) kicked everyone's butt score wise finishing far ahead of Boston, Crown, Blue Stars and everyone else.  After the show,  I overhead some staff from BAC and Blue Stars talking together about the results, and they were saying Regiment was getting 5 or 6 points extra just for having won the previous year.

Funny thing....as the days went on, that gap closed each night and by the time a week or two had passed,  the judges had embraced reality and all those corps had overtaken Reg. Was this competitive inertia? It does sound like it. 

I remember that. It's possible... very possible.

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3 hours ago, craiga said:

I do have a quick story on the alleged competitive inertia theory. I was traveling with BAC in 09 and our first shows were in the midwest...Ohio, I think.  At the very first show, Phantom Regiment (the 08 champion) kicked everyone's butt score wise finishing far ahead of Boston, Crown, Blue Stars and everyone else.  After the show,  I overhead some staff from BAC and Blue Stars talking together about the results, and they were saying Regiment was getting 5 or 6 points extra just for having won the previous year.

Funny thing....as the days went on, that gap closed each night and by the time a week or two had passed,  the judges had embraced reality and all those corps had overtaken Reg. Was this competitive inertia? It does sound like it. 

I do think the defending champion or top corps get the benefit of the doubt at the start of the season, but '09 Regiment also suffered from constant changes, throughout the whole season, which impacted their scores and thus was a factor in that gap closing and ultimately Boston and Blue Stars beating them at finals. Regiment's show was so problematic from the get go and despite all the changes it really didn't get any better. In my opinion - there's no doubt that Regiment corps was more talented than that Boston and Blue Stars corps. Another example of how design can be the sole factor that elevates or sinks you.

I'll also use this example to thwart the argument that Vanguard beat Blue Stars in 2010 solely based on Vanguard's history and reputation. Being that the judges put the defending champion in 9th (behind Blue Stars) the year before, discredits the theory that there was some malice behind not putting them in 7th in 2010.

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9 hours ago, radiosteele said:

Good question! They were magnificent last year, and could inch up a notch or two. 

Again, EVERYONE (to channel my inner RAMD) is magnificent at this time of year.  

Soon enough we will learn who has been chosen to be more magnificent, & who has been chosen to be less magnificent.

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4 hours ago, craiga said:

I do have a quick story on the alleged competitive inertia theory. I was traveling with BAC in 09 and our first shows were in the midwest...Ohio, I think.  At the very first show, Phantom Regiment (the 08 champion) kicked everyone's butt score wise finishing far ahead of Boston, Crown, Blue Stars and everyone else.  After the show,  I overhead some staff from BAC and Blue Stars talking together about the results, and they were saying Regiment was getting 5 or 6 points extra just for having won the previous year.

Funny thing....as the days went on, that gap closed each night and by the time a week or two had passed,  the judges had embraced reality and all those corps had overtaken Reg. Was this competitive inertia? It does sound like it. 

Absolutely was competitive inertia. The judges get it right more often than not, but it takes time for them to do so - this is the "inertia" part of the equation. They do have a tendency to give certain corps the benefit of the doubt, but they pretty much always get it right by the end of the season (some may disagree with that). 

When (not if) Boston puts out a design and performance worthy of a title, the judges will recognize it and reward them for it. But getting to that point takes time and I think in today's environment, it's next to impossible for a corps to win the title without getting very close to it first

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