jjeffeory Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 When I think of a "dark horse" I always think of a surprise. There are quite a few people saying Academy is a likely dark horse. Well I'm not sure I would consider Academy making finals as a dark horse. Academy has been predicted as a top 12 finalist since the spring. When they began competing, again many predicted a top 12 finish. The difference is that before the season started, Crossmen were predicted to fall, since that time, Boston Crusaders have been the corps predicted to fall. With no disrespect to Academy and their progress this year, they are not a dark horse, they are finishing as predicted. So Crossmen who are not in apparent danger of falling from finals, and unless their show plateaus will probably finish as high as 10th place, are showing themselves to be the dark horse. Now as a BAC fan, I should feel compelled to say BAC will be the dark horse since they are off to a slower start, but I still think we need to see BAC and Academy face each other. Most of us who are predicting BAC will not fall from finals have not seen Academy live since most of the season they have competed on the opposite side of the country of Academy. Likewise, most of those who have seen Academy live have yet to see BAC up close and personal. Whichever finds themselves in 13th in San Antonio will be fighting with a vengeance in Atlanta. If that corps ends up making finals Indy, that will be the dark horse. I would also say Cavies are proving themselves to be a dark horse for me. In all likelihood they may only move up one place this year, but they are stronger this year. Some have mentioned Crown. Where Bluecoats, Blue Devils, and Crown have been so close, if they continue to have such a close margin, it will not be a come from behind dark horse finish for whichever corps wins. Edit: I just saw Broken Arrow scores. I don't think we'll see Crossmen plateau. Do you mean you think they'll be in 8th this year? ...or do you mean you think they may move up to 5th? I assume the latter, but you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Most of us who are predicting BAC will not fall from finals have not seen Academy live since most of the season they have competed on the opposite side of the country of Academy. Likewise, most of those who have seen Academy live have yet to see BAC up close and personal. But the DCI Live shows have allowed fans to get a feeling of how most corps are stacking up against each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKSuperman Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 I think The Academy has their first chance at finals. I am a crown fan big time. Bd is going to be hard to beat this year I believe. Bloos gig in the sky is one of the best things I have ever seen or heard. Can Crown or Bloo beat Bd I highly doubt it. But we shall see. I think Crowns ending sounding like Star 93 more so. Could take them to the top. I'm sure Matt will take them there but is it enough? I know it has to be Crown owned and different than 93 Star but does it really? Matt was there he will know what to do. Great year for Drum Corps! This coming from a old Kingsmen lol. This. I love what you said about Crown. I don't know why, but it made me feel all tingly inside. They have the show, they have the staff, they have the ability. Just depends on whether they "show up" on finals night honestly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Do you mean you think they'll be in 8th this year? ...or do you mean you think they may move up to 5th? I assume the latter, but you never know. I wrote the original portion while watching the Republican National Convention. I'm a bit of a news junkie so I was switching channels to catch the pundits. I meant to say one or two places, which would be 8th or 7th, but 6th is a possibility. I would think 5th is a long shot, and it would most likely mean Cadets would have to fall, which while I don't expect them to medal, I don't see a fall as low as 6th happening. I have only seen Cavies live in the movie theater and will not see them live until Quincy, MA in early Augurst. While I was not in love with all aspects of their show, it had a Cavaliers feel to it which I have not felt since 2011, though there were glimpses of it in 2014. So I'm glad for them, and I'm looking forward to seeing them live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjeffeory Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 I wrote the original portion while watching the Republican National Convention. I'm a bit of a news junkie so I was switching channels to catch the pundits. I meant to say one or two places, which would be 8th or 7th, but 6th is a possibility. I would think 5th is a long shot, and it would most likely mean Cadets would have to fall, which while I don't expect them to medal, I don't see a fall as low as 6th happening. I have only seen Cavies live in the movie theater and will not see them live until Quincy, MA in early Augurst. While I was not in love with all aspects of their show, it had a Cavaliers feel to it which I have not felt since 2011, though there were glimpses of it in 2014. So I'm glad for them, and I'm looking forward to seeing them live. Thanks for the clarification! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Ream Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 waiting til this weekend to form opinions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoyWonder1911 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 I'll be watching S.A. show online, so I'll get to see the corps I haven't seen yet (Crossmen, Spirit, Surf) and also the ones I haven't seen since the Theater broadcast (Cadets, Crown, Boston). It's really hard to tell right now who is set to peak early, because corps are still tinkering with their shows. However, I would like to say that I think Academy is a lock for Finals. FINALLY. Also, of the top 3 this season, heck, the entire top 6, I don't think any of them have a championship-caliber show. Nothing I've seen says to me "This is a winning program." However, someone has to win, and since I think the top 3 all have comparably equal programs, the one with the most talent should win, and that to me would be the Devs. I think the top 3 is set, and the next 3 are set, and nobody will jump each other. However, I think the Blue Knights are the only corps with a program more worthy of the placements they are currently getting. If anyone is a dark horse, I'd think it would be them. They have the most to work with. This also means they have the most work to do to achieve their ceiling, which I think is around 96 points, which means they could end up around 94 with a clean, finished, cohesive product. Cadets have too much talent to fall, SCV is so good right now with a really nice, refreshing show, that it's unlikely they fall, too clean and sterile to jump into medal. Cavaliers would be the corps that would fall to 7th. Last season BK beat them by around 3.5 pts. Corps just don't normally make up that much ground over another from one year to another but rarely. Cavs have a great show, really fun to watch, but it's a "wham bam, thank you ma'am" show and I don't see any way of this holding up for another 23 days. What you see is what you get. Their program just doesn't have the depth to it like the Blue Knights show does, and if judges are rewarding anything these past few years, it's depth of concept, and that's what the Blue Knights have plenty of. A polished, finished, cohesive product will beat this Cavs show by a half a point. All they need to do now is put it together and work their butts off to get it clean and get it right, both marchers and staff. Blue Knights have a difficult program and a lot of talent. We will see soon enough if they are hungry enough to go and take it. 91.85 pts is a good score, but most years not a 6th place score. 6th place this year is likely to be 93-94. I;ll go ahead and say 1) BD 97.75 2) Bloo 97.35 3) Crown 96.4 4) SCV 95.3 5) Cadets 95.15 (gap) 6) BK 93.45 7) Cavs 93.2 (gap) 8) BStars 91.6 9) Xmen 90.8 10) Phantom 90.2 (gap) 11) Scouts 87.9 12) Academy 86.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THeShadeOfNight Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 (edited) That's wishful thinking....It's no more wishful than saying "this corps who has yet to beat Bluecoats this season will overtake them." Weirder things have happened Edited July 21, 2016 by THeShadeOfNight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobias Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Dark horse is interesting but the top three right now are so far ahead in scoring from the next bunch under them, I'm not seeing anyone emerging to medal that's not Crown, Bloo or BD. Academy certainly looks like they can grab a spot in finals and BK looks to be at the beginning of a growth spurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c.l. Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 (edited) I;ll go ahead and say 1) BD 97.75 2) Bloo 97.35 3) Crown 96.4 4) SCV 95.3 5) Cadets 95.15 (gap) 6) BK 93.45 7) Cavs 93.2 (gap) 8) BStars 91.6 9) Xmen 90.8 10) Phantom 90.2 (gap) 11) Scouts 87.9 12) Academy 86.7 I agree with a lot of what you say, but I don't foresee 10 corps scoring over 90 or Phantom getting 10th. edit: accidentally deleted the attribute from BoyWonder Edited July 21, 2016 by c.l. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.