Jurassic Lancer Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 3 hours ago, cixelsyd said: And the fatality rate could be as low as 0.01%, if that were the case. Citation, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg_orangecounty Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, Jurassic Lancer said: In all due honesty, I am not sure there will be a DCI when all is said and done. Let's not get carried away. We're all going to survive this, including DCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, skevinp said: What will be the criteria for a return to normalcy? Probably when the number of new confirmed cases per day drops below a certain threshold. Right now it's only going up, and at a scary quick pace. I don't know what the right number is, but whatever the epidemiologists say is necessary to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed. I read some reporting out of Seattle indicating that they're edging closer to their breaking point, with doctors only sleeping a couple hours each night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Just now, greg_orangecounty said: Let's not get carried away. We're all going to survive this, including DCI. DCI probably we'll survive. Most people on this forum will too. Most corps will. But it would be wrong to say "we're all going to survive this", since more than 4,000 people have already failed to do so. Italy today reported its highest number of new deaths yet. Here's hoping the drastic measures now being implemented will bend that curve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Lancer Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, greg_orangecounty said: Let's not get carried away. We're all going to survive this, including DCI. Your lips to God’s ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terri Schehr Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 DCI surviving this is the last thing on my mind right now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
year1buick Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Terri Schehr said: DCI surviving this is the last thing on my mind right now. Right there with ya. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terri Schehr Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, year1buick said: Right there with ya. It’s getting personal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 51 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: Probably when the number of new confirmed cases per day drops below a certain threshold. Right now it's only going up, and at a scary quick pace. I don't know what the right number is, but whatever the epidemiologists say is necessary to keep our hospitals from being overwhelmed. I read some reporting out of Seattle indicating that they're edging closer to their breaking point, with doctors only sleeping a couple hours each night. But what will be different at that point that will keep the numbers from going right back up again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, skevinp said: But what will be different at that point that will keep the numbers from going right back up again? Herd immunity, I think. Eventually enough people will have recovered from the virus that a new case is more likely to encounter one of those people, who will be immune to it and thus not pass it on, than to someone who has not yet been exposed to the disease and can pass it on to others. It's not the best solution! But it's generally thought now that it's too late to actually stop the virus for 18 months until a vaccine is available. We screwed up. We didn't take the problem seriously enough soon enough. (We = humanity and its various governments. South Korea and Taiwan (and Japan?) excepted. For now.) So all we can do is slow it down. And unfortunately, that means we need the disruptions to last a pretty long time. Here's a really cool article that runs four randomized animated simulations each time you click on it, with little bouncing balls representing all the people in a community in these scenarios: (1) no action is taken to slow the virus; (2) a full quarantine is attempted, but partly fails (as they almost always do); (3) some social distancing is implemented; and (4) a lot of social distancing is implemented. Watch as the population goes from uninfected (blue) to infected (orange) to recovered (pink). And imagine a horizontal line across the middle that represents our health care capacity. (The pictures will look a little different every time, because of the randomization.) And then we need to basically fund enormous efforts to create a vaccine, test antiviral drugs, build more respirators, and so forth. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Everyone now seems to agree that the official number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is much lower than the actual number. Even so, the reported number shows a very alarming trend: Jan. 14 — 0 Jan. 21 — 1 Jan. 28 — 5 Feb. 4 — 11 Feb. 11 — 14 Feb. 18 — 25 Feb. 25 — 59* Mar. 3 — 125 Mar. 10 — 1,004 Mar. 15 --- 3,777 That's the trend we need to slow. (The asterisk indicates the number when DCP first started discussing this issue, just three weeks ago.) Edited March 16, 2020 by N.E. Brigand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts