N.E. Brigand Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, LabMaster said: If 2020 was cancelled now, I would be willing to bet all drum corps orgs. shut down most of their operations until recruiting time in the fall, when they’d start things up for 2021. Most everyone would be on hiatus. One positive is they can do their program in 21, that they were going to do in 20. Unless things got leaked. That's pretty much what theaters are having to face: the end of their current seasons, substantial staff cuts, and fingers crossed for next season. 42 minutes ago, Ghost said: It's been quite different for me for some time. Tight financial circumstances may force drum corps to pare down to the essentials next year. And while that might appeal to me, I'd rather it didn't require the deaths of many thousands of Americans to bring about that change. Today, Mar. 15, the Vice President announced that the total number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is 2,900. It was 2,200 yesterday. That's a 32% increase in one day. Some of that increase surely is due to increased testing. But every expert agrees that the real number is much larger than 2,900. If it were to keep growing by 32%, then one month today, there would be 23 million confirmed cases in this country. If the real number right now is, as various epidemiologists believe, between 50,000 and 500,000, then on Apr. 15, at that rate of increase, it would be somewhere between 134 million and, well, everyone. At this point, there seems to be a rough scientific consensus that at least 40% of Americans will contract COVID19 by the time the epidemic is done. So that 134 million is not an unbelievable number -- and while it won't happen in a month, it could happen over a few months, which would overwhelm our hospitals. The number might be sort of manageable if it happens over the course of a year or more -- though even the best observed mortality rate, of 0.5% seen in South Korea, would leave 670,000 Americans dead. And as we know, the older you are, the more at risk you are. So a number of the "dinosaurs" who most want to see drum corps go back to a simpler time may not be around to see that happen. That said, younger people should take note of the message that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of infectious disease at the National Institutes of Health, today directed to young Americans: "You are not immune or safe from getting seriously ill." Edited March 15, 2020 by N.E. Brigand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cixelsyd Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: If the real number right now is, as various epidemiologists believe, between 50,000 and 500,000, then on Apr. 15, at that rate of increase, it would be somewhere between 134 million and, well, everyone. And the fatality rate could be as low as 0.01%, if that were the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weaklefthand4ever Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Continental said: If this virus is able to live on surfaces for a short period of time, why would the potential to pick it up from a surface not be taken into account when the need for testing is being discussed? My curiosity (and I'm smart enough to know this isn't an original thought,) is if the virus hasn't been here for months and is only recently being triggered by some sort of change. We had that mass flu-like illness in November and December and I know for a fact I was sending folks out of my classes and telling them to go see the doctor. But none came back saying they had the flu. Is it remotely possible that this specific mutation could have come on the surfaces of imported (or possibly even exported) goods and was just dormant like so many mutations until the conditions were "right?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCVNVET Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 44 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: So a number of the "dinosaurs" who most want to see drum corps go back to a simpler time may not be around to see that happen. Will not see this happen either, BD International 2020 canceled due to COVID-19 issues in this country and Europe. https://bluedevils.org/programs/international-corps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.E. Brigand Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Whoa. The CDC has just recommended that there be no gatherings of 50 or more people anywhere in the country for the next 8 weeks. I think that's the right call, if maybe not enough, and it probably should have been issued two weeks ago, but still: wow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCVNVET Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: Whoa. The CDC has just recommended that there be no gatherings of 50 or more people anywhere in the country for the next 8 weeks. I think that's the right call, if maybe not enough, and it probably should have been issued two weeks ago, but still: wow. Italy's last 24 hour progression 3590 confirmed new cases and 396 deceased I'm sure is prompting some of these recent actions. Whoa is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Windish Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: Whoa. The CDC has just recommended that there be no gatherings of 50 or more people anywhere in the country for the next 8 weeks. I think that's the right call, if maybe not enough, and it probably should have been issued two weeks ago, but still: wow. Just saw that CDC notice myself. Double Whoa! Whether we believe that length of time is necessary, or not, organizations like the corps and DCI will be prudent enough to follow it. They have to, frankly. I am a firm believer, seeing all the panic taking place now, most families will be apprehensive about resuming contact with large groups for probably another month after that! To be on the ‘safe side.’ The return to normalcy could take yet another month. Now, I’m looking at mid-June until things are back to full confidence. Getting dicey for 2020, I’m afraid. Edited March 16, 2020 by Fred Windish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimF-LowBari Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, N.E. Brigand said: Whoa. The CDC has just recommended that there be no gatherings of 50 or more people anywhere in the country for the next 8 weeks. I think that's the right call, if maybe not enough, and it probably should have been issued two weeks ago, but still: wow. Scratch Hanover Lancers concert in early April and probably Buccaneers concert early May. No real surprise and not Jr corps related but hopeful not the tip of the 2020 iceburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skevinp Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 What will be the criteria for a return to normalcy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurassic Lancer Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, skevinp said: What will be the criteria for a return to normalcy? In all due honesty, I am not sure there will be a DCI when all is said and done. Edited March 16, 2020 by Jurassic Lancer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts