2019 Predictions!

[ThePlanets]

2 hours ago, Jake W. said:

Everyone always says BD's reign "has to end some time". Does it?

If we flashed forward ten years into the future, and BD hasn't broken their medal streak, would too many of us be surprised? Probably not.

What about 20 years? 2039? A bit less believable, but it could certainly happen.

What about 40 years? 2059. I'd be 71. Jeezus. It's pretty unreasonable, but incredibly unlikely does not equal impossible. It could happen that they're still medaling at that point.

DCI as an organization maybe isn't around in the same capacity 30 years from now. Global warming could change the dynamics of society and we'll no longer care about marching band/drum corps. The orange lunatic could start a nuclear war with Iran and we'll be blown off the face of the earth and BD will end their reign still in the top 3.

All I'm saying is that Blue Devils' streak of medal finishes doesn't "have to end sometime".  It still remains an unwise bet to make.

A BD show is a BD show. I don't think anyone is saying that BD isn't THAT good this year. They are the measuring stick.

I think the point is that at this point in the season there are at least 3 shows good enough and special enough that they COULD beat BD. If all 3 DO beat BD it will land them out of a medal.  The last year in recent memory that this was possible was 2015 and BD still took it all but any of the top 4 we're good enough shows to win.

I'm a cynic so I still have BD bringing home gold...but their floor (like  <.05% chance) is 5th place. I think they have a 30-40% chance of gold and roughly a 75% chance of getting 2nd place or higher and probably a 90-95% chance of medaling. But this season is exciting and you don't find that even sliver of a chance that BD doesn't medal often.

BDs reign has been solid since 1976 and that isn't going to change. They have only missed medals 7 times since then and 6 of those times it was 4th place. Their only "down" years (by BD standards) were 89-93...which were 5 of the 7 years they didn't medal AND 1987 makes 6. So the only outlier really is 2005.

Now I don't think it's ludicrous to think they might have a year here and there where they don't medal...or get 3rd place. It won't end their dominance. 

I do think that the winning 60% of the time and their crazy dominance since 2007 will wind down though eventually.

Edited June 26, 2019 by ThePlanets

[cfirwin3]

11 hours ago, Jake W. said:

Everyone always says BD's reign "has to end some time". Does it?

If we flashed forward ten years into the future, and BD hasn't broken their medal streak, would too many of us be surprised? Probably not.

What about 20 years? 2039? A bit less believable, but it could certainly happen.

What about 40 years? 2059. I'd be 71. Jeezus. It's pretty unreasonable, but incredibly unlikely does not equal impossible. It could happen that they're still medaling at that point.

DCI as an organization maybe isn't around in the same capacity 30 years from now. Global warming could change the dynamics of society and we'll no longer care about marching band/drum corps. The orange lunatic could start a nuclear war with Iran and we'll be blown off the face of the earth and BD will end their reign still in the top 3.

All I'm saying is that Blue Devils' streak of medal finishes doesn't "have to end sometime".  It still remains an unwise bet to make.

Placing 4th or 5th does not constitute the end of the dynasty.  No way.  BD's real signature and claim to fame was etched in stone during a championship drought from 1989 to 1993.  If you ask anyone that was following drumcorps at that time to name their favorite show ever, a large chunk of people will name one of these productions:

1989 (the Yes, Georgio show that became infamous for an unfortunate finals night trumpet solo.  But it was a killer show none the less).
1990 Music from "Tommy" (legendary)
1991 Conversations in Jazz (this was a 1st place caliber show that was ahead of its time.  Lots of people pick this as their favorite -5th Place!!)
1992 Big Bad and Blue ("When a Man Loves a Woman" defined the sound of drumcorps for a generation)
1993 Don Ellis Portrait (epitomizes the sound of Blue Devils screaming sopranos.  Arguably the finest presentation of jazz soloing... maybe ever on the field)

None of these shows earned higher than 4th in a span of 5 years and one of them was 5th place with a score in the 93.x range.  And the Devils were (some say) at their very best in design and presentation during this era.  When people talk about the way the Devils used to be... they are usually talking about these shows.

So, yes, the Devils can place 4th or 5th.  No, it doesn't imply a cotton pickin' thing about an end to their 'dynasty'.

The end of their dynasty is probably portrayed more in their pursuit of esotera (although, I tend to disagree with that as well... see the 'self indulgent' thread for that discussion).

[BWise]

Well ... top 6

SCV

CC

BD

BLOO

CAV

BAC 

 

[Jake W.]

I think you misunderstood what I was saying, cfirwin3. I read over and over in predictions each season that "BD's medal streak has to end eventually". My only point is that that's a false assertion; their medaling placement streak DOESN'T "have to" come to an end eventually. It's unlikely they'll have maintained this current medaling streak 40 years from now, but unlikely doesn't equate to not possible. That's all I was meaning to point out.

[skevinp]

I'd love to see a streak of months, weeks, even days without people posting political comments on DCP, but it seems any such streak always comes to an end.

[boxingfred]

Very scary top 6. Every corps in that group needs to stay on top of their game. Concord, Crown, Coats, Cavaliers, Clara and Crusaders Have their work cut out for themselves.

Edited June 26, 2019 by boxingfred

[skevinp]

2 minutes ago, boxingfred said:

Very scary top 6. Every corp in that group needs to stay on top of their game. Concord, Crown, Coats, Cavaliers, Clara and Crusaders Have their work cut out for themselves.

I see what you did there.  

😄

[Royalbrigade01]

After watching most of the shows twice I am jumping on the Santa Clara Vanguard wagon.... this is based on the Soloist that can hit Triple G over c theory...SCV has that guy..like Madison in 75, Blue Devils other years...whatever Corp has that guy wins! SCV had the same guy last year..hence they won! LOL

But seriously like many and said there are six really good shows and right now it looks like SCV BD bluecoats Crown Cavaliers... these top five might be separated by less than two points... and I think at the top you could have it by 1/10 or 2 it looks like a year for a tie too

 

 

[cfirwin3]

1 hour ago, Jake W. said:

I think you misunderstood what I was saying, cfirwin3. I read over and over in predictions each season that "BD's medal streak has to end eventually". My only point is that that's a false assertion; their medaling placement streak DOESN'T "have to" come to an end eventually. It's unlikely they'll have maintained this current medaling streak 40 years from now, but unlikely doesn't equate to not possible. That's all I was meaning to point out.

Got it.  I would still say that the increase crowding of contending corps makes it pretty likely that they will win something other than 1-3 in the near future.  The conditions are similar to Cadets, SCV, Cavaliers, Phantom, Scouts, Star from back in the day.  Haven't seen contending corps stack up like that in a long time.

[queenanne_1536]

3 hours ago, cfirwin3 said:

Got it.  I would still say that the increase crowding of contending corps makes it pretty likely that they will win something other than 1-3 in the near future.  The conditions are similar to Cadets, SCV, Cavaliers, Phantom, Scouts, Star from back in the day.  Haven't seen contending corps stack up like that in a long time.

Yes, this were fun times back in the day. There’s so much less movement today, especially at the top. If you look at where corps ended up vs where they started last year (likely where they were at this time last year because not everyone had gone head to head), there’s very little movement that’s going to happen this year.

Vanguard 1st .... 1st

Devils 2nd .... 2nd

Coats 3rd .... 3rd

Crown 4th .... 4th

BAC 5th .... 6th

Cavies 6th .... 5th

Cadets 7th .... 7th

Stars 8th .... 11th/12th

BK 9th .... 8th

Mandarins 10th .... 11th/12th

Regiment 11th .... 9th

Crossmen 12th .... 10th/11th

Corps like SCV and BD just don’t have any weaknesses from a caption standpoint, so they are very hard to beat right there. The other top corps are so good as well that it’s hard for them to pass up corps that are above them and it’s almost impossible for corps below them to pass them up.

The lower corps (7th and lower) just aren’t as consistent across captions, so more movement is seen there.

So, if you’re in the top 6 and you’re behind someone right now, the chances of moving in front of them are slim to none. 

Edited June 27, 2019 by queenanne_1536