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2023 Season Predictions


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28 minutes ago, Chief Guns said:

World Class, Cavies were arguably hit the hardest. 

But if you count Open Class, no one was hit harder than Gold. 

Gold performed on July 10th in Stanford, got smashed with Covid, didn't perform again until July 30th in Atlanta. 

But in the end every corps dealt with it at some point. It's like indoor groups blaming the weather on why they can't beat California groups since they never have snow days. COVID may have impacted cavies but I think show design hurt them more (and I believe staff issues).

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7 minutes ago, Vidal28Rdg said:

That truly does sound unfortunate, I’m hoping for all corps to be wealthy in health this year, minimal inclement weather days as they’re all ramping up a little quicker this year with the shorter schedule, they all deserve to be seen by the most eyes they Can in what I believe will be a fantastic year for many corps🔥🔥

Totally agree. 

It gets swept under the rug since it's Open Class, but what Gold did last year was miraculous. To grab the silver medal despite half their season being taken away from them due to covid was phenomenal. 

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17 hours ago, BlueStainGlass said:

But in the end every corps dealt with it at some point. It's like indoor groups blaming the weather on why they can't beat California groups since they never have snow days. COVID may have impacted cavies but I think show design hurt them more (and I believe staff issues).

I agree, Cavies show design out of the gate was not good last season. However very few corps will have a perfect design out of the gate and so while the show design was not what they wanted they were prevented from making those changes once 47+ members of the corps had to be quarantined from rehearsals. At that point all you can do is rehearse what you have.

 

On the flip side with only 6 week seasons now (and they could get shorter) it will be imperative that staff and design have a strong and executable game plan for a short season. Show design has to mostly hit early on. It's a tough thing to do for sure. Designing a show is one thing, bringing it to life on the field is another. It's a difficult process and very few ( or a group of people) can design something great or perfect right out of the gate without tweaks, trial and error, and sometimes major re-writes. If your show needs the later (big re-writes) you will have scoring issues. The show could be loved or liked but from a scoring perspective that corps will play catch-up all summer. 

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20 hours ago, Hook'emCavies said:

Cavies finished 5th in 2016 after finishing 9th in 2015. You are most certainly NOT wrong though.... it is very hard to jump up like that. Not impossible though. Right now, I don't care about where they might place... I want them to win the crowd. It can happen.

Cavaliers limped in to Finals in 2015, too. They had a big enough outage due to rotovirus that they didn’t even take the field at Southeastern Championship Regional in Atlanta. And according to med team i met on the road with them in 2017, the full corps didn’t get back on the field until Prelims. 

All speculation til the first salute. I’ll be in Lisle on July 2 … with my former Cavs DM sitting with me for a change. After 7 years of Atlanta CV/Cavaliers, it will be nice to have him in the stands with us…😎
 

 

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2 hours ago, jwillis35 said:

I agree, Cavies show design out of the gate was not good last season. However very few corps will have a perfect design out of the gate and so while the show design was not what they wanted they were prevented from making those changes once 47+ members of the corps had to be quarantined from rehearsals. At that point all you can do is rehearse what you have.

 

On the flip side with only 6 week seasons now (and they could get shorter) it will be imperative that staff and design have a strong and executable game plan for a short season. Show design has to mostly hit early on. It's a tough thing to do for sure. Designing a show is one thing, bringing it to life on the field is another. It's a difficult process and very few ( or a group of people) can design something great or perfect right out of the gate without tweaks, trial and error, and sometimes major re-writes. If your show needs the later (big re-writes) you will have scoring issues. The show could be loved or liked but from a scoring perspective that corps will play catch-up all summer. 

Noting your comment that a 6 week tour “could get shorter”; I believe if that occurs, the issues about tour costs become moot.  It won’t be worth the time and effort required to produce the quality of shows, be done for a shorter tour.  The ROI significantly changes.  A short tour might be what kills DCI.  At least for the quality we see performed now.
 

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1 hour ago, PopcornEater1963 said:

Cavaliers limped in to Finals in 2015, too. They had a big enough outage due to rotovirus that they didn’t even take the field at Southeastern Championship Regional in Atlanta. And according to med team i met on the road with them in 2017, the full corps didn’t get back on the field until Prelims. 

All speculation til the first salute. I’ll be in Lisle on July 2 … with my former Cavs DM sitting with me for a change. After 7 years of Atlanta CV/Cavaliers, it will be nice to have him in the stands with us…😎
 

 

Come down to Texas lol

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1 hour ago, Sensioto said:

1-3: Blue Devils, Boston Crusaders, Carolina Crown

4-6: Bluecoats, Cadets, Cavaliers

7-9: Blue Stars, Phantom, Mandarins

10-12: Troopers, Blue Knights, Spirit of Atlanta

13-15: Colts, Crossmen, Madison Scouts

16-18: Music City, The Academy, Genesis

19-21: Seattle Cascades, Jersey Surf, Pacific Crest

As a Crown honk I love the Crown comment.  But were I to make predictions, I might group things slightly differently at the top:

1: BD

2-4 Crown, Bluecoats, Boston

IMHO....

Consistency matters and Bluecoats have demonstrated it.   To win you have to design a show that lets you win multiple captions (including GE) from BD and/or have other corps (preferably 2 or 3 others!) win some and have your corps finish 2nd in those captions.  Not having SCV competing this season will certainly mix up the math a bit.  You have to prove you're not just a flash in the pan to the judges before they'll consider you as a champion .  

Average Finals Placement (past 10 seasons)

corps avg placement appearances
Blue Devils 1.40 10
Carolina Crown 3.20 10
Bluecoats 3.60 10
Vanguard 3.90 10
Cadets 5.00 10
Cavaliers 6.20 10
Boston Crusaders 7.40 10
Phantom Regiment 7.60 10
Blue Knights 8.22 9
Blue Stars 9.44 9
Madison Scouts 9.83 6
Mandarins 10.00 3
Academy 11.00 1
Colts 11.00 1
Spirit of Atlanta 11.33 3
Crossmen 11.43 7
Troopers 12.00 1

 

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2 hours ago, karuna said:

As a Crown honk I love the Crown comment.  But were I to make predictions, I might group things slightly differently at the top:

1: BD

2-4 Crown, Bluecoats, Boston

IMHO....

Consistency matters and Bluecoats have demonstrated it.   To win you have to design a show that lets you win multiple captions (including GE) from BD and/or have other corps (preferably 2 or 3 others!) win some and have your corps finish 2nd in those captions.  Not having SCV competing this season will certainly mix up the math a bit.  You have to prove you're not just a flash in the pan to the judges before they'll consider you as a champion .  

Average Finals Placement (past 10 seasons)

 

corps avg placement appearances
Blue Devils 1.40 10
Carolina Crown 3.20 10
Bluecoats 3.60 10
Vanguard 3.90 10
Cadets 5.00 10
Cavaliers 6.20 10
Boston Crusaders 7.40 10
Phantom Regiment 7.60 10
Blue Knights 8.22 9
Blue Stars 9.44 9
Madison Scouts 9.83 6
Mandarins 10.00 3
Academy 11.00 1
Colts 11.00 1
Spirit of Atlanta 11.33 3
Crossmen 11.43 7
Troopers 12.00 1

 

For the love of stats can you do a 3yr and 5yr to go with the 10yr?

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